宏观周度述评系列：地缘政治冲突框架下资产定价的四个阶段-20260315

Group 1: Geopolitical Conflict Stages - The first stage is the "emotional shock stage," where risk-averse trading dominates, leading to a short-term market reaction, typically lasting 1-3 trading days[9] - The second stage is the "differentiated response stage," where risk-averse trading continues alongside event-driven trading, with markets beginning to distinguish between affected sectors[10] - The third stage is the "impact attenuation stage," where risk-averse and event-driven trading persist, but the focus shifts to recovery trades and new mainline trades as geopolitical risks decrease[11] - The fourth stage is the "new framework formation stage," where geopolitical impacts are largely priced in, leading to a new market equilibrium and consensus on new mainline trades[12] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - Global stock markets are under pressure, with MSCI developed markets down 1.46% and emerging markets down 1.40%[15] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.3%, with a significant sell-off in bonds leading to a 1.23% decline in the Bloomberg Global Bond Index[19] - Brent crude oil prices surged by 11.27% to $103.14 per barrel, driven by geopolitical risk premiums and supply-demand imbalances[17] - The A-share market saw a slight decline of 0.48%, with the ChiNext and dividend indices leading gains amid a backdrop of rising PPI and export recovery[14] Group 3: Economic Indicators - March PPI is expected to rise by 0.8% month-on-month, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.3% for the first time in 42 months[4] - Estimated actual GDP growth for March is 4.67% year-on-year, with nominal GDP growth at 5.97%[4] - The nominal GDP growth for the first quarter is projected to be 5.24%, indicating a recovery trend in economic activity[21]