银行资负跟踪：降准降息预期走弱

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The expectation for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions has weakened, indicating a shift towards a more cautious monetary policy approach [14] - The central bank is expected to maintain a balanced approach in using monetary policy tools, focusing on supporting the economy while ensuring bank profitability [14] - Personal mortgage rates in China are nearing the average levels seen during the zero interest rate periods in the US, UK, and Japan, reflecting a stable monetary policy stance [14] - The central bank aims to keep interbank liquidity ample without resorting to excessive liquidity injections, supporting banks in capital replenishment and reducing funding costs [14] Summary by Sections Section 1: Weakening Expectations for Rate Cuts - The central bank's recent actions indicate a preference for a "prudent choice" in monetary policy, balancing multiple objectives [14] - The current credit interest rates are at historical lows, with a focus on maintaining bank interest margins while promoting low financing costs through market regulation [14] - The central bank's operations have resulted in a net withdrawal of 2,511 billion CNY, with a focus on maintaining liquidity stability [15] Section 2: Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The central bank conducted 1,765 billion CNY in 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 2,511 billion CNY overall [15] - Market rates have shown slight increases, with R001 and R007 rising to 1.39% and 1.50% respectively [15] - Upcoming liquidity events include a significant reverse repo maturity and tax payment dates, which may affect market liquidity [25] Section 3: Bank Financing Tracking - The total outstanding amount of interbank certificates of deposit (NCD) is 18.47 trillion CNY, with a weighted average interest rate of 1.67% [22] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit totaled 8,459 billion CNY, with a completion rate of 94.1% [22] - The commercial bank bond market remains stable, with no new issuances reported during the period [22]