债弱逻辑完美，再通胀定价充分

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", expecting a gain of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [38] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market decline was significant this week, with Monday contributing a large drop. Due to the escalation of the Iranian war and a sharp rise in oil prices, stocks and bonds both showed signs of "stagflation." The bond - bear logic of re - inflation has been strengthened, but there may still be an "expected difference" in interest rate decline in the bond market [7][8] - Considering factors such as the source of bond market repair, individual bond trading strategies, and the pricing of inflation in the 30Y - 10Y spread, the report maintains the judgment that the 10 - year bond yield will reach 1.75% and the 30 - year bond yield will reach 2.15% during this bond market repair [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Reasons for the Bond Market Decline - Oil price increase can advance the time for PPI to turn positive, strengthening the bond - bear logic of re - inflation [8] - The performance of "Fixed - income +" and secondary bond funds is mediocre, lacking incremental funds [8] - The issuance of 50 - year treasury bonds was average, and some institutions increased their short - selling of bonds [8] 3.2 Sources of Bond Market Repair - Big banks increased bond purchases due to insufficient credit at the beginning of the year. From mid - January, big banks significantly increased their purchases of 7 - 10 - year treasury bonds, with a cumulative net purchase of about 250 billion yuan as of March 13 [11] - The relatively loose funds. Local bond supply in February was lower than the same period last year, and the central bank's net monetary injection alleviated supply concerns. The deposit pressure on banks' liability side was not high, resulting in low - level operation of capital interest rates around the Two Sessions and a significant decline in certificate of deposit (CD) interest rates [13] 3.3 Market Concerns after the Festival - Regarding whether big banks selling OCI old bonds to realize floating profits at the end of the quarter will affect bond allocation, although big banks sold 7 - 10Y treasury bond old bonds last year, they stabilized on March 19. This year, the slope of net purchases has slowed down after the festival, and there is no need to worry too much [15] - Regarding whether the "patch" on inter - bank self - discipline after the meeting will impact the capital market, there may be some disturbances in March, but the banks' asset - liability gap pressure is not high, and the central bank's attitude of injecting medium - and long - term funds remains unchanged, so there may not be much risk of an increase in CD prices [17] 3.4 Individual Bond Trading Strategies - 10Y China Development Bank new and old bond spread widening: The spread between 250220 and 250215 widened after the festival. Funds have insufficient purchases of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds recently, while increasing their holdings of 3 - 5Y bonds. Since early March, the borrowing concentration of 250220 has accelerated, with small and medium - sized banks being the main borrowers [19] - 15 - year treasury bonds showing resistance to decline: In the recent bond market correction, the decline of 15Y treasury bonds was significantly lower than that of 30Y bonds. This is because the 15 - year term is an extension of the 10 - year variety, and 15 - year bonds are within the upper limit of the insurance product allocation period [21] - Gambling on the spread convergence between Special Bond 6 and old bonds: The spread between Special Bond 6 and other bonds has widened. Market trading may involve short - selling or a "neutral strategy" based on the spread. However, there are uncertainties in bond issuance and replacement, and the cost of short - selling is not low. Attention should be paid to short - covering after the borrowing concentration reaches a high level [23][25] - Other term bond varieties: 30 - year local bonds are in a low - volatility state, and the insurance allocation scale is acceptable. The 50 - year treasury bonds had a slight "issuance overshoot" this week, and the term spread is at a historical high [30][31] 3.5 Pricing of Re - inflation in the 30Y - 10Y Spread - The current inflation narrative is different from before, mainly a geopolitical + oil - price - driven imported inflation narrative. Imported or supply - side inflation may not necessarily lead to bond market adjustments [34] - Considering factors such as the chip structure, the imperfection of short - selling basis, and the decline in multi - asset linkage, the report believes that the spread has room to converge, with the 30 - year interest rate expected to repair [35]