通胀回升利率一定上行吗？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Inflation rising does not necessarily lead to an upward - moving interest rate center. Since the 21st century, there have been 6 obvious inflation - rising periods in China, which can be divided into demand - pull inflation, cost - push inflation, and structural inflation. Demand - type inflation often drives the interest rate center up significantly, while cost - type and structural inflation do not necessarily do so [1][9]. - Inflation rising does not necessarily result in tightened monetary policy. The fundamental reasons for the upward - moving interest rate center are the recovery of the fundamentals and tightened monetary policy. During demand - pull inflation, the central bank often stops easing or tightens monetary policy, driving up interest rates. In 2019 and 2021, mainly cost - push inflation occurred, and the monetary policy focused on maintaining economic growth and might be further relaxed, leading to a decline in interest rates [1][10]. - After the bond market adjustment, the allocation value has increased, and allocation investors are actively participating. With the decline in broad - spectrum interest rates, the liability costs of banks and insurance institutions have decreased, and bank liabilities are more stable than expected. As a result, allocation funds are sufficient [2][14]. - The cost - performance of bonds has increased. It is difficult for the 10Y Treasury bond interest rate to break through the previous high and may maintain a volatile trend. It is advisable to moderately participate in long - term bonds during the adjustment. With the continuous relaxation of the capital market, the short - end has higher certainty, and attention should be paid to the opportunities of spread reduction [2][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, inflation shocks and inter - bank news alternately disturbed the bond market, causing intensified fluctuations. The long - end performed weaker than the short - end. The yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds rose by 3bp and 9bp respectively [8]. - The current inflation recovery is mainly driven by the cost side. However, the 2026 government work report clearly states "continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy", so the probability of tightened monetary policy is low [10]. 3.2 Bond Market Quotation Review 3.2.1 Capital Situation: The central bank had a net withdrawal, and capital interest rates rose - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 251.1 billion yuan. From March 9th to 13th, R001 and DR001 rose by 0.3bp and 0.2bp respectively compared with March 6th. The 3M certificate of deposit (CD) issuance rate fluctuated within a range, and the FR007 - 1Y swap rate first rose and then fell. As of March 13th, the 3M national - share bank draft discount price was 1.48%, up 10bp from March 6th [26][28]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends: Fluctuations intensified - This week, the yield fluctuations intensified, and the long - end performed weaker than the short - end. Except for the 1 - year, the Treasury bond interest rates of other key tenors rose. Except for the 10Y - 7Y, the term spreads of other key tenors widened. As of March 13th, the yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds rose by 3bp and 9bp respectively compared with March 6th [32]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment: The 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread widened significantly - As of March 13th, the weekly turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds rebounded to 40%, the 50Y - 30Y Treasury bond spread widened by 1bp compared with March 6th, and the 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread widened by 5.2bp to 55bp, reaching a new high this year. The inter - bank leverage ratio dropped to 107.5%, and the exchange leverage ratio slightly dropped to 121.9%. The median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds decreased by 0.01 years to 2.55 years, and the divergence degree slightly decreased. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds narrowed [40]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply: This week, the CD issuance rate dropped to 1.55%, and the government bond issuance scale will increase next week - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased. From March 9th to 13th, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 255.2 billion yuan. Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds turned to net financing, while the net financing of local government bonds decreased. Next week, the government bond issuance scale will increase, and the local government bond issuance scale is expected to reach 342.2 billion yuan, an increase of 206.7 billion yuan compared with this week [49][53]. 3.3 Economic Data: Freight rate indices and industrial production continued to improve marginally - In February, inflation readings exceeded expectations. The CPI同比 was 1.3%, the core CPI同比 was 1.8%, and the PPI同比 was - 0.9%. From January to February, foreign trade growth returned to double - digits. In February, the total national import and export volume was 508.78 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 27.7%. The total import and export volume from January to February was 1.09954 trillion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 21.0% [56]. - In February, social financing growth remained stable, and the year - on - year growth rate of M1 rebounded. Since March, freight rate indices and industrial production have continued to improve marginally. In terms of real estate, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities and the land transaction area in 100 cities declined month - on - month. In terms of consumption, movie consumption continued to weaken, while subway travel was stronger than the Spring Festival seasonality. In terms of exports, port cargo throughput decreased month - on - month, while container throughput increased month - on - month. Industrial production continued to improve marginally [59]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Markets: US GDP data was significantly revised down, and Chinese bonds outperformed US and European bonds - US GDP data was significantly revised down. The annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the US real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 was revised down from the initial value of 1.4% to 0.7%. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts has cooled. US and European bonds fell, and the emerging - market bond market generally declined [64][66]. 3.5 Major Asset Classes: Crude oil prices continued to rise, and the US dollar index exceeded 100 - This week, the CSI 300 index rose slightly, the Nanhua Crude Oil Index rose significantly by 17%, and the US dollar index rose and exceeded 100 again. Shanghai copper and gold both fell slightly. The performance of major asset classes this week was: crude oil > rebar > US dollar > CSI 300 > live pigs > Chinese bonds > convertible bonds > CSI 1000 > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Shanghai gold > Shanghai copper [69]. 3.6 Bond Market Calendar - From March 16th to 20th, there will be liquidity injections and expirations, government bond supplies, and the release of fundamental data. There are also many important domestic and international events to watch, such as central - bank interest - rate decisions and economic data releases in different countries [74].