每周宏观经济和资产配置研判-20260315

Domestic Macro Perspective - China's economy is shifting from low inflation to input-driven price increases, with PPI rising over 0.4% for two consecutive months[1] - The upstream sectors and government benefit from rising prices, while downstream industries and consumer incomes face pressure, particularly in sectors like consumer electronics and automobiles[1] - Economic indicators such as retail sales and employment in March will be crucial for assessing the sustainability of economic recovery amid rising prices[1] Overseas Macro Perspective - Geopolitical disturbances have temporarily impacted risk appetite, with the market currently in a rebound phase[3] - The risk of stagflation is increasing globally due to rising oil prices, suggesting a focus on defensive investments in upstream resource sectors like oil, gas, and chemicals[3] Bond Market Perspective - The yield curve has shown divergence since February, with short-term rates declining and long-term rates rising; 1-3 year rates fell by 1-4 bps while the 10-year rate rose by 3.9 bps[4] - The market is at a crossroads between "inflation trading" and "stagflation trading," with current economic conditions not supporting stagflation[4] Investment Strategy - A balanced ETF allocation is recommended, focusing on sectors that can withstand inflationary pressures[7] - The report suggests monitoring the oil price, which is currently around $100/barrel, with potential to rise above $120/barrel if geopolitical tensions escalate[5] Risk Factors - Key risks include slower-than-expected economic policy implementation, unexpected changes in U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy, and significant price volatility in major asset classes[9]