不锈钢：基本面与宏观施压，现实成本支撑：镍：冶炼累库与宏观情绪共振，矿端紧缺托底下方

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel: The accumulation of smelting inventories and macro - sentiment resonate, while the shortage at the mine end supports the bottom. Although the logic of resource - based and strategic reserve narratives still exists, short - term attention should be paid to the change in the conflict situation. In terms of fundamentals, Indonesia's resource management actions may stimulate market sentiment, but the 30% quota revision space mentioned by the APNI Association reduces the upward elasticity of Shanghai nickel. The mine - end contradiction is real in the first half of the year, pushing up the integrated pyrometallurgical cash cost to 130,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, trading should focus on the current mine - end contradiction, with a strategy of buying on dips near the pyrometallurgical cost. From late March to April, attention should be paid to the supply release of the Philippines and Indonesia's second - round supplementary quota. If the supply is less than expected, nickel prices may remain strong [1]. - Stainless Steel: The market is disturbed by macro - risk preferences, and the actual cost center has shifted upward. The shipping problem in the US - Iran conflict has a negative impact on the global economy, reducing market risk preferences. The supply - demand contradiction of stainless steel is not significant, but high production schedules pose challenges to consumption verification. The cost logic provides support for stainless steel, and the strategy in March is to go long at low intervals while being vigilant about macro - risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inventory Tracking - Refined Nickel: On March 13, China's social inventory increased by 2,397 tons to 83,746 tons, with warehouse receipt inventory increasing by 2,894 tons to 56,462 tons, spot inventory decreasing by 197 tons to 24,314 tons, and bonded area inventory decreasing by 300 tons to 2,970 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,892 tons to 284,658 tons [4]. - New Energy: On March 13, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed monthly by 0, - 2, and 0 to 5, 7, and 7 days respectively. On March 12, the precursor inventory changed monthly by - 0.5 to 13.1 days, and the ternary material inventory changed monthly by - 0.2 to 7.2 days [4]. - Nickel - iron and Stainless Steel: On March 12, the SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory increased by 10% monthly to 131,000 metal tons and decreased by 1% weekly. In February, the SMM stainless steel mill inventory was 1.65 million tons, increasing by 10% year - on - year and 8% month - on - month. On March 12, the Mysteel stainless steel social inventory was 1.1425 million tons, decreasing by 0.66% weekly. Among them, the cold - rolled stainless steel inventory was 706,000 tons, decreasing by 1.14% weekly, and the hot - rolled stainless steel inventory was 436,500 tons, increasing by 0.14% weekly [4]. 3.2 Market News - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and the government will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and collecting royalties [5]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the significant rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of US restrictions [5]. - The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced the 2026 nickel work plan and cost budget, with the approved nickel ore production quota between 260 million and 270 million tons [5]. - Philippine miners said on February 12 that the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [6]. - On February 18, a landslide occurred in a tailings area of the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [6]. - Sherritt International Corporation reduced the operation scale of its joint - venture in Cuba due to limited fuel supply, suspending mining operations and putting the processing plant on standby for maintenance [6]. - PT Weda Bay Nickel received a preliminary notice from the Indonesian authorities, with a production and sales quota of 12 million tons in the work plan and budget, a 70% reduction compared to 2025 [6]. - The Indonesian Forest Area Management Working Group imposed sanctions on four nickel mining companies in North Maluku Province, and they were fined according to the regulations [7]. - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources estimated the 2026 nickel ore production to be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of nickel - iron and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [7]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) said that the revision of the 2026 work plan and budget is expected to be approved in July, and the revised RKAB may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% [9]. 3.3 Weekly Key Data Tracking of Nickel and Stainless Steel - Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 136,930 yuan, with a change of - 1,170 yuan compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,190 yuan, with a change of - 95 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 402,936 lots, and that of the stainless steel main contract was 183,920 lots [12]. - Industrial Chain: The price of 1 imported nickel was 137,950 yuan, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 1,095 yuan, and the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) was 14,450 yuan [12].