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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton futures are expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short - term, but further upward movement requires more fundamental drivers. Domestic cotton futures are also expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend, and reaching new highs needs new upward drivers in both domestic and international cotton markets [1][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract opened at 64.20, reached a high of 66.25, a low of 64.08, and closed at 65.80, with a gain of 1.59 and a rise of 2.42%. The trading volume was 148,162 lots, a decrease of 24,966 lots, and the open interest was 155,381 lots, a decrease of 7,356 lots [4] - Zhengzhou cotton main contract opened at 15,330, reached a high of 15,765, a low of 15,185, and closed at 15,415, with a gain of 120 and a rise of 0.78%. The trading volume was 3,324,141 lots, an increase of 1,264,610 lots, and the open interest was 725,321 lots, a decrease of 39,759 lots [4] - Cotton yarn main contract opened at 21,215, reached a high of 21,835, a low of 21,125, and closed at 21,565, with a gain of 360 and a rise of 1.70%. The trading volume was 89,240 lots, an increase of 28,368 lots, and the open interest was 14,249 lots, a decrease of 367 lots [4] 3.2基本面 3.2.1国际棉花情况 - ICE cotton futures regained the upward momentum this week. The near - month May contract recovered last week's decline, and the far - month December contract hit a new high this year, reaching above 70 cents per pound. In the first half of the week, ICE cotton futures rebounded due to the decrease in warehouse receipts and commercial bargain - hunting. On Friday, it continued to rise due to the rumor of China's additional import quota [1][5] - The USDA's March 2026 monthly supply - demand report: The US cotton balance sheet remained unchanged. The global cotton balance sheet increased the 2025/26 global cotton production by 1.13 million bales, mainly due to the increase of 750,000 bales in Brazil's production and 500,000 bales in China's production. The global cotton consumption in 2025/26 was slightly reduced by 140,000 bales. The ending inventory in 2025/26 increased by 1.28 million bales to 76.39 million bales, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.4%, compared with 63.3% in the February report and 62% in the 2024/25 season [5] - As of the week ending March 5, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 57,400 tons, a 68% increase from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the four - week average. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 8,300 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 83,900 tons, a 31% increase from the previous week and a 77% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 2.1456 million tons, accounting for 82% of the annual predicted total export volume. The cumulative export shipment volume was 1.1906 million tons, accounting for 55% of the annual total signed volume [6] - Australia: The picking work in the main producing areas is accelerating. In January, the cotton export volume increased year - on - year. As of March 10, the water storage in the Murray - Darling Basin was about 48% of the total capacity, lower than 58% in the same period in 2025. In January, the export volume of Australian raw cotton was 53,000 tons, a 45% decrease from December but a 41% increase from the same period last year. China is still the main export destination. In the first six months of this international cotton year, the cumulative export volume of Australian raw cotton reached 838,000 tons, higher than 723,000 tons in the same period of the 2024/25 season [7] - Brazil: The market continues to focus on the new - crop production, and the current downward adjustment is limited. The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association (ABRAPA) predicts that the cotton production in Brazil this year will be 3.83 million tons, lower than 4.25 million tons in 2025. The production in Mato Grosso, the largest producing state, is expected to be 2.56 million tons, a 15% decrease from the previous season. The production in Piauí is expected to increase by nearly 41% to 93,355 tons. The export volume of raw cotton in the first week of March has reached nearly 88,000 tons, a significant increase compared with the same period in 2025. In the first seven months of the 2025/2026 season, the cumulative export volume of Brazilian raw cotton reached 1.992 million tons, higher than 1.905 million tons in the same period last year [8][9] - Bangladesh: The demand for cotton imports has rebounded. Due to the continuous conflict in the Middle East, spinning mills expect higher freight and basis quotes and lock in supplies in advance. However, the core shipping routes for imports and exports are still closed or severely blocked, and there are concerns about energy shortages and cost increases [9] - Pakistan: The planting area in the new season is still uncertain, and the demand for cotton imports is moderate. Some local estimates show that the planting area this year may decrease by about 5% - 10% compared with last year. Recently, the domestic cotton price has risen, which may encourage some farmers to continue growing cotton. The import demand this week is moderate. Yarn export inquiries still exist, but buyers are not highly accepting of the current high prices [9] - Southeast Asian textile industry chain startup rates: As of the week ending March 13, the startup rate of Indian textile enterprises was 68%, that of Vietnamese textile enterprises was 70%, and that of Pakistani textile enterprises was 68.5% [10] 3.2.2国内棉花情况 - Cotton prices fluctuated widely, and trading was still light. In the week ending March 13, cotton futures and spot prices fluctuated widely and generally rose. Spot point - price trading was generally cold, and only improved after the decline of Zhengzhou cotton on Friday. When Zhengzhou cotton was strong during the week, the fixed - price spot trading was relatively good. The high basis of cotton spot decreased slightly, and the mainstream basis in the market was temporarily stable [11] - As of March 13, there were 12,506 registered warehouse receipts and 285 pending warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton, totaling 12,791 receipts, equivalent to 537,222 tons. There were 259 registered warehouse receipts of domestic - produced cotton and 12,247 of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season [11] - Downstream trading and prices continued to improve. The pure - cotton yarn market was booming, and most orders of inland spinning mills were scheduled for more than one month later. The shipment of downstream weaving mills was good, and the startup rate was high. The supply of yarn of 40S and above was tight, and the sales of medium - and low - count varieties also improved. The spinning mills' inventory was gradually reduced, and both Xinjiang and inland spinning mills maintained a high startup rate. The overall transaction price increased, and the cash flow of spinning mills improved. The open interest of weaving mills continued to recover, and the inventory of cotton cloth continued to decrease. The raw material inventory of weaving mills increased [12] 3.3操作建议 - ICE cotton futures are expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short - term. Further upward movement requires more fundamental drivers. Domestic cotton futures are also expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend, and reaching new highs needs new upward drivers in both domestic and international cotton markets [17]