豆油：美豆成本支撑，豆系近端偏强：棕榈油：炒作题材频发，上方空间仍在

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, due to the return of funds in palm oil amplifying fluctuations, the short - term disorder of global logistics capacity, and the increased risk preference for inflation topics brought by energy, the oil and fat sector has caught up with the commodity bull market of "precious metals - non - ferrous metals - energy and chemicals". It is advisable to maintain a long - position thinking before the geopolitical risk decreases. The trend of rising led by fundamentals needs the realization of production - end drivers. One can wait for the price correction caused by the increase in production or weak exports after Ramadan. If an appropriate pressure - release period can be given in April and May, a new stage of stabilizing and waiting for price increases may be entered. Continuously pay attention to the spill - over effect of oil price fluctuations on vegetable oil prices [6] - For palm oil, factors beyond the internal fundamentals of agricultural products, mainly due to the increased risk preference of funds for short - term disorder of global logistics capacity and inflation topics brought by energy, have led to a sharp decline in the explanatory power of fundamental data for the market. From the perspective of fundamentals, the increase in the use of palm biodiesel in Indonesia, the potential supply disturbances in the future due to El Niño and the increase in fertilizer prices, and the rise of US soybean oil all support the price increase of palm oil. The current main theme is expected speculation and macro - sentiment, and the price height depends on the rise of crude oil. After the crude oil sentiment subsides, if the production recovery and inventory reduction are slow after Ramadan, it may lead to the annual price low in the second quarter [2][4] - For soybean oil, although there are risks in the harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the production of Argentine soybeans is expected to decline, the cost of US soybeans is strongly supported by policy procurement expectations and cost increases. In the case of good crushing profits, the discount has no driving force for a sharp decline. Therefore, soybean oil can follow the upward trend of palm oil and is expected to operate strongly in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Viewpoints and Logics - Palm oil: The intensification of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East rapidly pushed up energy prices. The POGO spread fell from a high to a negative value within a week. The concern about the implementation of a higher blending ratio of biodiesel in Indonesia quickly dissipated. With topics such as Indonesia's consideration of export bans, the palm oil 05 contract rose 6.78% last week, breaking through the pre - holiday high and reaching 9,800 yuan/ton. Bullish sentiment remains, and attention should be paid to the upward trend of energy [1] - Soybean oil: The tense situation in Iran rapidly pushed up energy prices, which affected the cost of domestic soybean products through direct cost - pushing effects and port congestion issues in Singapore's MFO bunker fuel. At the same time, the speculation and inquiries about 8 million tons of purchases supported the price of US soybeans, and soybean oil rose 3.38% last week [1] 2. This Week's Viewpoints and Logics Palm oil - Beyond - fundamental factors: The increase in risk preference of funds for short - term disorder of global logistics capacity and inflation topics brought by energy has led to a sharp decline in the explanatory power of fundamental data for the market [2] - Fundamental analysis: - Biodiesel aspect: After Indonesia has direct commercial blending profits, the use of palm biodiesel will increase. Europe will turn to vegetable oils after experiencing an energy outage. The domestic palm oil valuation is estimated to be between 10,000 - 10,500 yuan. If the situation continues, Indonesia may issue an export ban again. The pessimistic sentiment about the inability to implement a higher blending ratio of biodiesel in Indonesia this year has dissipated, and the early implementation of B50 is also worth looking forward to [2] - Production aspect: The expectation of a strong El Niño in the second half of the year may cause supply disturbances in palm oil. The increase in fertilizer prices not only raises costs but also weakens the logic of a bumper harvest. Considering the decline in production from January to February, the potential for lower - than - expected production from April to May due to less rainfall last year may increase, which is the reason for maintaining a long - position thinking before the geopolitical risk decreases [2] - US soybean oil aspect: US soybean oil has broken through 65 - 70 cents, and the profit is rising. However, the cost - performance of US soybean oil as biodiesel has deteriorated compared with Brazilian tallow. The subsequent upward factors of US soybean oil have shifted to the policy sentiment stimulus of RVO exceeding expectations and the further rise of crude oil prices, and the fundamental repair is coming to an end [2] - Real - world fundamentals: The inventory reduction in Malaysia in February was limited. The actual production in the past two months was close to the model, increasing the possibility of lower - than - expected production in March (1.4 million tons) and April (1.55 million tons). Although India may prefer to import more profitable soybean oil from March to April, making the export of palm oil after March not optimistic, and it is difficult to reduce the inventory to below 2 million tons in the first half of the year, the current main theme is expected speculation and macro - sentiment, and the price height depends on the rise of crude oil. After the crude oil sentiment subsides, if the production recovery and inventory reduction are slow after Ramadan, it may lead to the annual price low in the second quarter [4] Soybean oil - Brazilian soybean production may be affected by rainfall in the southern region, but the output is still estimated to be above 178 million tons. The core production areas in Argentina are still at risk of drought, and the national output is expected to decline to around 46 million tons. The short - term strength of US soybeans is mainly driven by Sino - US policy procurement expectations and the increase in cost centers such as agricultural product freight and fertilizers. US soybeans only need an additional 4 million tons of procurement from China to maintain a low inventory. Therefore, there is strong support at the cost end except for the Brazilian discount. In the case of good crushing profits, the discount has no driving force for a sharp decline. The cost premium of US soybeans and the customs clearance issues of soybean products are still topics of speculation. The future arrival pressure does not constitute the main trading contradiction at present. With the support of import costs and export profits, soybean oil can follow the upward trend of palm oil and is expected to operate strongly in the short term [5] 3. Disk Basic Market Data - Palm oil main - continuous contract: The opening price was 9,384 yuan/ton, the highest price was 9,888 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 9,240 yuan/ton, the closing price was 9,768 yuan/ton, and the increase was 6.78%. The trading volume was 3,589,689 lots, an increase of 1,102,487 lots compared with the previous period, and the open interest was 340,134 lots, a decrease of 35,396 lots [8] - Soybean oil main - continuous contract: The opening price was 8,500 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,910 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8,388 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,690 yuan/ton, and the increase was 3.38%. The trading volume was 2,487,202 lots, an increase of 972,905 lots compared with the previous period, and the open interest was 626,137 lots, a decrease of 42,806 lots [8] - Rapeseed oil main - continuous contract: The opening price was 9,760 yuan/ton, the highest price was 10,167 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 9,642 yuan/ton, the closing price was 9,821 yuan/ton, and the increase was 2.40%. The trading volume was 1,449,326 lots, an increase of 323,141 lots compared with the previous period, and the open interest was 244,393 lots, a decrease of 47,996 lots [8] - Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract: The opening price was 4,685 ringgit/ton, the highest price was 4,803 ringgit/ton, the lowest price was 4,370 ringgit/ton, the closing price was 4,564 ringgit/ton, and the increase was 4.56% [8] - CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract: The opening price was 69.59 cents/pound, the highest price was 69.91 cents/pound, the lowest price was 64.38 cents/pound, the closing price was 67.43 cents/pound, and the increase was 1.44% [8] - Price spreads: The rapeseed - soybean 05 spread was 1,131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.81% compared with the previous week; the soybean - palm 05 spread was - 1,078 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.75% compared with the previous week; the palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 116 yuan/ton, an increase of 480.00% compared with the previous week; the soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 114 yuan/ton, an increase of 137.50% compared with the previous week; the rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was 118 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.38% compared with the previous week [8] - Warehouse receipts: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 823 lots, an increase of 223 lots compared with the previous week; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 25,714 lots, a decrease of 541 lots compared with the previous week; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1,125 lots, an increase of 400 lots compared with the previous week [8] 4. Core Data of Oil and Fat Fundamentals - Malaysia palm oil: The production reduction in February is expected to continue to be more than 10%. The inventory in February may continue to decline to around 2.7 million tons. The export volume from March 1 - 10 was 622,445 tons, a 37.9% increase compared with the same period last month [11][17] - Indonesia palm oil: The year - end inventory is expected to return to a moderately abundant level. The price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra has slightly declined, and the domestic refining profit is at a high level [13][17] - India: The import profit of soybean and sunflower oil has risen rapidly, and the CNF spread between soybean oil and palm oil has dropped significantly [18] - EU: The cumulative import volume of palm oil in 2026 has decreased by 50,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume of four major oils and fats has decreased by 10,000 tons [19]