铁矿石周度报告-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly view on iron ore is that the near - term is strong while the long - term is weak, and the 5 - 9 positive spread is strengthening [3]. - The logic is that the near - term contract price of iron ore rebounds due to the escalation of the US - Iran conflict leading to a significant increase in energy costs and the possible restriction of more BHP iron ore purchases, while the long - term impact is relatively small [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Price Spreads - Last Friday, the spot price of PB powder was 797 (+33) yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 contract was 811.5 (+40) yuan/ton. The basis of the 05 contract was 20 (-3) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 09 spread was 34 (+8.5) yuan/ton [10]. - The price difference between high - grade and medium - grade ores, as well as the difference between lump and powder ores, is expanding [44]. 3.2 Iron Ore Supply - Global iron ore shipments were 2897 million tons this week, a week - on - week decrease of 13.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.3%. Australia's shipments were 1694 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.7%. Brazil's shipments were 574 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.6% [4]. - The arrivals at 45 ports were 2609 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 21.6% and a year - on - year increase of 42.0% [4]. - Mainstream and non - mainstream ore supplies are both at high levels, and the supplies of the four major mines are at normal levels. Domestic mines have resumed production after the Spring Festival, and production has increased [17][23][35]. 3.3 Iron Ore Demand - The demand outlook is not optimistic. Steel mills' profits are at a low level, the resumption of hot metal production is weak, and the future steel demand is not expected to be good. Steel mills do not have excessive restocking actions [5]. - Steel mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The high - grade to medium - grade ore price spread and the lump - to - powder ore price spread are expanding. The cost - effectiveness of scrap steel is lower than that of hot metal [40][44][45]. 3.4 Iron Ore Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports is at a high level and continues to accumulate. In the context of weak demand expectations, it is expected that steel mills will purchase according to demand, and the inventory accumulation is concentrated in the trading sector. Australian ore inventory has increased significantly [47][49]. 3.5 Iron Ore Cost - Oil prices have risen, leading to an increase in freight rates, including BCI, BDI, West Australia - Qingdao, and Tubarao - Qingdao freight rates [51].