生猪：投机需求持续入场，将进入去库阶段

Group 1: Report Overview - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The pig market is expected to enter the destocking phase in mid - to late March. The spot price is in the bottom - seeking stage, and the futures market may enter the active weight - reduction and destocking phase [2][3][4] Group 2: This Week's Market Review (3.9 - 3.15) Spot Market - Pig prices are weakly operating. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan is 28.7 yuan/kg (last week: 29.8 yuan/kg), the price of pigs in Henan is 10.18 yuan/kg (last week: 10.48 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide is 1541 yuan/head (last week: 1559 yuan/head) [2] - On the supply side, group enterprises' slaughter has returned to normal, with volume reduction and price support on weekends, and social passive backlogging. On the demand side, slaughter volume has gradually returned to the spring normal level, the volume of passive segmentation and warehousing has increased, and the speculative demand for secondary fattening has accelerated [2] - The average slaughter weight nationwide this week is 125.6KG (last week: 125.4KG), with a month - on - month increase of 0.16% [2] Futures Market - Pig futures prices are oscillating and adjusting. The highest price of the LH2605 contract this week is 11435 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 11100 yuan/ton, and the closing price is 11150 yuan/ton (last week: 11160 yuan/ton) [2] - The basis of the main contract is - 970 yuan/ton (last week: - 680 yuan/ton) [2] Group 3: Next Week's Market Outlook (3.16 - 3.22) Spot Market - Pig spot prices are weakly operating. Due to the slow slaughter progress in February, the supply is postponed again. Although enterprises hope to destock, the short - term social passive inventory accumulation is difficult to reverse. After the Spring Festival peak season, the slaughter volume in the off - season has dropped significantly, and the spot price is in the bottom - seeking stage [3] - From the supply perspective, according to the piglet data, the supply of standard pigs will continue to increase until April 2026. However, the pre - festival market expectation was strong, resulting in multiple rounds of inventory accumulation sentiment, and the destocking effect during the peak season was not as expected. After the festival, the weight is at the highest level in the same period in recent years and continues to increase, confirming the passive inventory accumulation pattern [3] - From the demand perspective, the market had a strong expectation for the pre - Spring Festival peak season, driving the advance of speculative demand in January. However, the negative feedback of downstream losses during the peak season appeared, resulting in the increase in peak - season volume falling short of expectations. After the post - festival spot price decline, the speculative demand for secondary fattening and segmentation warehousing increased, further over - consuming the speculative demand [3] - Overall, the group's slaughter plan in March has a large increase, social backlogging continues, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has entered the inverted stage, but there will still be speculative behavior in the social aspect until the spot market is pessimistic and panicked, driving panic destocking. It is expected to enter the destocking phase in mid - to late March [3] Futures Market - The price of the LH2605 contract closed at 11150 yuan/ton on March 13. Secondary fattening and segmentation warehousing continue to enter the market, the price difference between fat and standard pigs continues to shrink and has inverted, the average weight of enterprises continues to increase and is at the highest level in recent years. At present, the profit of weight gain is negative, and the continuous low price consumes the enterprise's cash flow. It is expected to enter the active weight - reduction and destocking phase. The upper limit of slaughter volume consumption in the off - season is low, and the destocking process may last for a long time, with the spot price further seeking the bottom [4] - The current 05 contract has a large premium. In the second half of the month, it will enter the stage of the industry taking back the premium. Pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2605 contract is 10000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12000 yuan/ton [4] Group 4: Other Data - This week's basis is - 970 yuan/ton; the month - spread between LH2605 and LH2607 is - 1195 yuan/ton [9] - This week's average weight is 125.6KG (last week: 125.4KG) [12] - In January, the pork output is 5.36 billion tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%; in December, the pork import is 5.36 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.23% [12]