动力煤产业链周度报告-20260315

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Thermal Coal Industry Chain - Report Date: March 15, 2026 - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Analyst: Fan Yuanyuan [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran has tightened the global energy market, driving up overseas coal prices. However, in the short term, domestic coal prices are still weak due to the off - season demand. The price difference between imported coal and domestic coal is significantly inverted. The geopolitical event may affect the domestic coal market through the chain of "oil and gas and freight → international coal prices and trade → domestic supply and demand". The import disruption is expected to support domestic coal prices during the off - season, limiting the downward adjustment space of domestic coal prices. - In the long - term, the substitution of thermal power by new energy will continue. The demand for coal in the power system will peak and gradually decline during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. With policy - dominated supply, the upward elasticity of coal supply is limited, and the price center will shift upwards. Coal prices will operate between 600 - 850 yuan/ton in the long run, and the long - term agreement price still has support [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Data of Thermal Coal Price - Domestic coal prices continue to decline, while overseas coal prices are strong. As of March 13, 2026, the price of Yulin 5800 kcal index was 592.0 yuan/ton, down 13.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of Ordos 5500 kcal index was 526.0 yuan/ton, down 11.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of Datong 5500 kcal index was 585.0 yuan/ton, down 30.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of Qinhuangdao Port 5500 was reported at 736.0 yuan/ton, down 14.0 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Qinhuangdao Port 5000 was reported at 653.0 yuan/ton, down 16.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The CCI imported 4700 index was reported at 86.0 US dollars/ton, up 0.8 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the CCI imported 3800 index was reported at 70.0 US dollars/ton, up 0.8 US dollars/ton week - on - week [5][8] Price (Overseas Coal) - The import price difference is inverted [9] 2. Supply Domestic Production (Weekly) - Pit - mouth supply is increasing steadily. From March 5 - 11, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in the Three - West regions was 90.04%, an increase of 6.53 percentage points from the previous period. Factors affecting coal production capacity in 2026 include the exit of backward production capacity, the potential exit or conversion of uncompleted approved incremental production capacity, and the disposal of incremental production capacity that fails to fulfill coal contracts [14][16] Domestic Production (Monthly) - In 2025, the national raw coal production increased by 1.2% year - on - year. In December 2025, the national raw coal production was 43,703 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% and a month - on - month increase of 2.40%. The annual production reached a new high, but the daily average production decreased. In 2025, Shanxi ranked first in production, with cumulative raw coal production of 130,454.5 tons, accounting for 27% of the national total and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%; Inner Mongolia's cumulative raw coal production was 128,639.8 tons, accounting for 26.62% of the national total and a year - on - year decrease of 1%; Shaanxi's cumulative raw coal production was 80,461.7 tons, accounting for 16.65% of the national total and a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [17][22] Seaborne Coal - The arrival volume of imported coal at ports is less than the same period last year [23] Import (Monthly) - From January to February 2026, the national imported coal was 7,722.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In February, the import volume was 3,094.27 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.95%. In January, the import volume was 4,627.96 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10.82%. Since 2026, Indonesia's coal exports have remained weak, with many policy interferences [24][29] 3. Inventory Mine - The inventory at the origin has increased month - on - month [31] Port - The inventory at northern ports continues to accumulate. As of March 13, the total inventory of northern ports (excluding Huanghua) was 2,456.0 tons, an increase of 116.0 tons week - on - week. With the maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, the shipping volume from northern ports will be affected, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down [2][37] 4. Transportation - The inbound and outbound volumes at ports have increased [40] 5. Demand Power Demand - The daily coal consumption of coastal power plants is weak, and the inventory is high. In the next 10 days (March 14 - 23), there will be more rainy weather in the eastern part of Southwest China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In 2025, the growth rate of the whole - society electricity consumption was 5% [42][49][50] Power Production - In 2025, the thermal power generation decreased by 1% year - on - year. The precipitation in Southwest China is relatively low [53][55] Non - power Demand - The demand for building materials and metallurgy is weak, while the demand for chemical coal remains high. This week, the blast furnace operating rate was 78.34% week - on - week, and the clinker production capacity utilization rate increased by 5.72 percentage points to 45.55% [61]