原木周度报告-20260315

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to slow outbound movement on the demand side and a rapid increase in arrivals on the supply side, port inventories are accumulating, leading to a price correction for logs. - In the medium - term, supply will increase in March while demand recovers slowly. Port inventories may start to decline from high levels. Log supply is expected to remain at a normal level based on shipping schedules, but weak new property starts will continue to drag down log demand [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Market Trends - Spot Price Trends: The prices of various log types in Shandong and Jiangsu regions showed little change in the week of March 13, 2026, compared to the previous week. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong remained at 860 yuan/m³, with a 0% change. However, some types had minor price fluctuations, such as the 5.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Jiangsu, which increased by 30 yuan/m³, a 3.6% change [7]. 3.2 Supply - New Zealand Log Shipping Data: Multiple log shipments from New Zealand and Australia are expected to arrive at Chinese ports between March 18 - 27, 2026, with cargo volumes ranging from 35,192.04 m³ to 42,000.0 m³ [19]. - Arrival Increase: The log arrival volume at Chinese ports has been increasing, as shown by the historical arrival data of Chinese ports, Lanshan Port, Taicang Wanjun Port, and Xinminzhou Port [21]. 3.3 Demand and Inventory - Domestic Main Port Inventory and Daily Shipment: As of March 6, 2026, inventory at ports such as Lanshan Port, Xinminzhou, Jiangdu Port, and Taicang Port showed different degrees of change compared to the previous period. For example, the total inventory at Lanshan Port decreased by 0.70 (0.5%), while the total inventory at Jiangdu Port increased by 3.27 (23.6%). The daily shipment volume also varied, with the total shipment volume at Lanshan Port increasing by 0.11 (34.4%) [23]. 3.4 Other Price - Related Factors - Freight and Exchange Rates: On March 13, 2026, the dry bulk BDI was 2028, with a 0.9% increase from the previous week; the Handysize BHSI was 796, with a 3.7% decrease; the crude oil BDTI was 2,586, a decrease of 483 from the previous week; the SCFI composite index was 1,710, a 14.9% increase. The USD/CNY exchange rate was 6.901, a 0.3% decrease, and the USD/NZD exchange rate was 1.725, a 3.5% increase [27].