多晶硅：需求回落，盘面交易供需逻辑：工业硅：成本被动抬升

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon: This week, the inventory increased slightly. Attention should be paid to the upstream resumption rhythm. The cost will be passively increased, and the upside space is limited due to hedging pressure. It is recommended to wait for the callback to the low - valuation level to lay out long positions. The expected price range next week is 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton [2][7][8] - Polysilicon: The market is in a weak shock. Pay attention to the spot price. The supply is increasing while the demand is weak. The price center will decline in the early stage of destocking. The pressure of warehouse receipts will also affect the market. The expected price range next week is 37000 - 45000 yuan/ton [7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - The reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses of industrial silicon from February 13, 2026, to March 13, 2026, are provided, including different grades such as Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 [9] 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: The upstream resumption of production is less than expected. This week, the start - up rate increased slightly, mainly from the resumption of production in southwestern factories. Xinjiang has no new start - up plans for the time being. The cost in the dry season in the southwest is 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.12 million tons, with a total industry inventory increase of 0.02 million tons. Attention should be paid to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [3] 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The weekly output decreased slightly this month, but there is also the resumption of silicon material production capacity, which will bring an increase in supply. The current factory inventory is about 350,000 tons, and the overall industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to 5 months of consumption [4] - Demand: The silicon wafer production schedule increased week - on - week. However, the continuous decline in silicon wafer prices will affect the psychological purchase price of silicon materials. After mid - March, the photovoltaic export tax refund cancellation - driven export rush will end, and the domestic market has not improved significantly. The overall photovoltaic demand is expected to decline [5][6] 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Silicone - Price: The average price of domestic DMC shows a certain trend from 2023 to 2026 [23] - Production and Inventory: The weekly production of silicone decreased slightly this week. Under the production reduction pattern, the inventory decreased. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of demand recovery [3] 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Price and Start - up Rate: The price of recycled aluminum ADC12 shows a seasonal pattern, and the monthly start - up rate of the recycled aluminum industry is also provided. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work of aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers is limited, and the demand market increases slowly, mostly in a wait - and - see state [24][25]