铜产业链周度报告-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strengthening of the US dollar exerts downward pressure on copper prices, but the de - stocking of domestic inventories may limit the price correction. The copper market is expected to be volatile, with a price range of 98,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton [3][6]. - The support of AI computing power centers for the long - term logic has changed. Although there are some setbacks in the US AI computing power infrastructure, overall, it is still in the expansion process and can drive the long - term consumption of copper [6]. - The current fundamentals are still weak but have shown marginal positive changes. The growth rate of global copper inventory has slowed down, and the domestic social inventory has decreased. The willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish stocks may increase as prices correct. At the same time, the spot processing fee of copper concentrates has continued to decline, and the refined - scrap spread has rapidly narrowed [6]. - In terms of trading strategies, the strengthening of the US dollar exerts short - term pressure on prices, but the positive changes in the fundamentals are expected to limit the price decline. A term positive arbitrage can be carried out as the near - month contracts of Shanghai copper show a large C - structure [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of INE, SHFE, and COMEX copper has decreased, while the volatility of LME copper has increased. The LME copper price volatility is around 10%, and the Shanghai copper volatility is about 14%, both showing a significant decline compared to the previous week [10]. - Term Spread: The C - structure of Shanghai copper has expanded, and the spot discount of LME copper has widened. The spread between Shanghai copper 03 - 04 contracts on March 13 was - 310 yuan/ton, wider than - 300 yuan/ton on March 6. The LME 0 - 3 discount on March 13 was 102.70 US dollars/ton, wider than 44.86 US dollars/ton on March 6. The near - end C - structure of COMEX copper has also expanded [13][15]. - Position: The position of INE copper has increased, while the positions of SHFE and LME copper have decreased. The position of Shanghai copper has decreased by 412 lots to 579,500 lots [16]. - Fund and Industry Position: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased. The net short position of LME commercial enterprises decreased from 43,100 lots on February 27 to 35,300 lots on March 6, and the net long position of CFTC non - commercial decreased from 57,700 lots on March 3 to 51,700 lots on March 10 [22]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot discount has turned into a premium, and the Yangshan Port copper premium has expanded. The domestic copper spot changed from a discount of 70 yuan/ton on March 6 to a premium of 85 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan Port copper premium rose from 42 US dollars/ton on March 6 to 45 US dollars/ton on March 13 [26]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, with the LME inventory increasing and the social inventory decreasing. The global total copper inventory increased from 1.4608 million tons on March 5 to 1.4786 million tons on March 12. The domestic social inventory decreased from 577,200 tons on March 5 to 557,390 tons on March 12, but it is still at a high level in the same period of history [30]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has declined, and the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai copper is at a relatively low level in the same period of history, indicating that the overseas spot - driven logic has weakened [31]. 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The import of copper concentrates has increased year - on - year, and the processing fee has continued to be weak. In December 2025, the import volume of copper ore and its concentrates in China was 2.7043 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.24%. The port inventory of copper concentrates decreased from 485,000 tons on March 6 to 404,000 tons on March 13, and the smelting loss decreased slightly from 2,274 yuan/ton on March 6 to 2,220 yuan/ton on March 13 [34]. - Recycled Copper: The import volume of recycled copper has increased year - on - year, and the domestic production has increased significantly year - on - year. In December, the import of recycled copper was 239,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.88%. In September, the domestic production of recycled copper was 97,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.85%. The refined - scrap spread of recycled copper has significantly narrowed, and the import profit has decreased [37][42]. - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has increased month - on - month, and the processing fee has rebounded. In December, the import of blister copper was 61,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.15%. In February, the processing fee of blister copper rebounded, with the southern processing fee at 2,350 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at 95 US dollars/ton [45]. - Refined Copper: The production of refined copper has increased year - on - year, the import has decreased, and the spot import loss has turned into a profit. In February, the production of refined copper was 1.1424 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.05%. It is expected that the cumulative production from January to March will be 3.5169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.11%. In December, the import of refined copper was 260,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.76%. The spot import loss of copper changed from a loss of 444.83 yuan/ton on March 6 to a profit of 34.27 yuan/ton on March 13 [50]. 3.3 Demand End - 开工率: In February, the operating rates of copper product enterprises rebounded month - on - month, but were all lower than the same period last year. In the week of March 12, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises increased marginally [53]. - Profit: The processing fee of copper rods is at a high level in the same period of history, and the processing fee of copper tubes has rebounded. As of March 13, the processing fee of copper rods for the power industry in East China was 660 yuan/ton, higher than 450 yuan/ton on March 6. On March 13, the 10 - day moving average of the processing fee of R410A special copper tubes was 5,333 yuan/ton, higher than 5,296 yuan/ton on March 6 [58]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has increased marginally. In February, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a relatively low - to - neutral level in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level in the same period of history [59]. - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods is at a high level, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased. In February, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low - to - neutral level in the same period of history [62]. 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The apparent consumption of copper is good, and grid investment remains an important support. The cumulative consumption of copper from January to December was 15.8257 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.88%. The apparent consumption from January to December was 15.9903 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.23%. The grid investment growth rate has slowed down, with the cumulative grid investment from January to December being 635.002 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.11% [69]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production: In December, the domestic air - conditioner production was 14.782 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 18.66%. In February 2026, the domestic new - energy vehicle production was 694,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 21.85% [70].