美豆周度报告-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the downside is limited as demand is expected to improve. The market will generally fluctuate with a slight upward trend, in the range of 1,050 - 1,250 cents per bushel [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Focus - The market's focus lies in four aspects: the outcome of the Sino - US leaders' mutual visits, the impact of rising crude oil prices on planting, the release rhythm of South American supply pressure, and the EPA's biodiesel policy [2] 3.2 Overall View and Long - Short Logic of US Soybeans - Overall View: South American bumper harvest means no bull - market basis; demand improvement limits the downside, with an overall slightly upward - trending fluctuation in the range of 1,050 - 1,250 cents per bushel [6] - Short Logic: After China purchases US soybeans, the Trump administration may reduce support for the biodiesel addition policy; Brazil's harvest is accelerating, maintaining a harvest pattern; Argentina is expected to receive rainfall after a brief drought [7] - Long Logic: After China purchases 12 million tons of US soybeans, it will add another 8 million tons of soybeans in this crop year; Argentina's early drought may lead to a downgrade in yield; soaring global crude oil prices may trigger inflation [9] 3.3 Spot and Futures Market Prices - As of March 13, 2026, the price of the US soybean futures continuous contract rose 24.5 cents per bushel to 1,225.25 cents per bushel; the US soybean meal futures continuous contract rose $5.5 per short ton to $322.7 per short ton; the US soybean oil futures continuous contract rose 0.86 cents per pound to 67.44 cents per pound [9] - As of March 12, 2026, the spot soybean purchase price in Illinois rose 21.75 cents per bushel to 1,219.5 cents per bushel compared to the previous week; the soybean quotation at the US Gulf port rose 5.5 cents per bushel to 1,295.25 cents per bushel compared to the previous week [9] - As of March 13, 2026, the spot price of soybeans in the inland region of Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose 0.23 reais per bag to 102.67 reais per bag; the spot price at the Paranagua port fell 0.98 reais per bag to 130.2 reais per bag compared to the previous week [10] - As of March 11, 2026, the FOB price of Argentine soybeans for the May shipment rose $1 per ton to $47 per ton; the price for the June shipment rose $2 per ton to $434 per ton [10] 3.4 Weather Conditions in Main Producing Areas - In the next week, precipitation in Brazil will be mainly concentrated in the central - eastern region, with slightly less precipitation in the southern region, but the situation will improve in the second week. In specific major producing states, Mato Grosso will have slightly more precipitation; South Mato Grosso will have normal precipitation in the next week and less in the second week; Paraná will have less precipitation, which is conducive to harvesting; Rio Grande do Sul will have less precipitation in the next week and the precipitation will gradually return in the second week [13] - In the next two weeks, the main producing areas in Argentina will have good precipitation, especially in the Buenos Aires and Cordoba regions, which is conducive to supplementing the previous water shortage and the growth of soybeans [13] 3.5 US Soybean Demand - According to USDA data, as of the week of March 6, 2026, the US soybean export inspection and quarantine volume was 995,000 tons, compared with 1.119 million tons in the previous week; the net sales in this crop year were 456,700 tons, compared with 383,400 tons in the previous week; the net sales in the next crop year were 9,000 tons, compared with 0 tons in the previous week; the shipment to China was 411,400 tons, compared with 734,600 tons in the previous week [33] 3.6 CFTC Positions and Planting Costs - According to CFTC data, as of March 7, 2026, the net long positions of funds in soybean futures and options were 230,000 contracts, an increase of 16,800 contracts compared to the previous week; the net long positions in soybean oil futures and options were 99,700 contracts, an increase of 33,900 contracts compared to the previous week; the net long positions in soybean meal futures and options were 80,600 contracts, an increase of 18,500 contracts compared to the previous week. From the perspective of fund positions, the operation ideas for soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal are all to increase long positions [41] - In terms of planting costs, the cost in the US remains high, while the cost in Brazil is lower than that in the US but has also increased compared to the previous year. According to the latest crude oil price increase, the US planting cost is expected to increase by about 50 cents from the original 1,200 - 1,250 cents per bushel, and Brazil is expected to increase by 70 cents from 950 - 1,000 cents per bushel [43]