铅产业链周度报告-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The lead industry is rated as "Weak", with a price range of 16,300 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, but considering the continuous increase in inventory, it exerts pressure on the phased price. It is expected that the lead price will remain weak overall, and previous short positions can continue to be held [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Aspect - Price and Spread: The Shanghai lead main contract (PB00.SHF) closed at 16,555 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly decline of 1.31%. The night - session closing price was 16,395 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.97%. The LME lead 3 - month contract (LmeS - lead3) closed at 1,979, with a weekly increase of 1.70%. The LME lead (0 - 3) spot premium was - 47.55, a decrease of 4.64 compared to the previous week. The Shanghai 1 lead spot premium was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8] - Inventory: As of March 12, the domestic lead social inventory was 76,500 tons, higher than 67,200 tons on March 5. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 67,019 tons, an increase of 12,643 tons compared to the previous week. The Shanghai lead total inventory was 76,049 tons, an increase of 9,220 tons compared to the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 284,500 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to the previous week [8] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 45,931 lots, an increase of 6,668 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 63,681 lots, an increase of 6,006 lots compared to the previous week. The trading volume of the LME 3 - month lead contract was 7,361 lots, an increase of 95 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots compared to the previous week [8] 3.2 Lead Supply - Lead Concentrate: The import volume, production, actual consumption, and inventory of lead concentrate in previous years are presented in the report. The import TC was - 145 US dollars/ton, and the domestic TC was 250 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged compared to the previous week. The lead concentrate smelting profit (processing) is also shown in the report [24][26][27] - Primary and Secondary Lead: The production and weekly operating rates of primary lead and secondary lead in previous years are presented. The production of primary lead is increasing, and some smelters are gradually resuming production. The profit of secondary lead is suppressed, and the willingness of recyclers to hoard goods is not strong, resulting in a tight supply of waste batteries. Secondary lead enterprises are gradually resuming production, and it is expected that the production of secondary lead will gradually increase [7][30] - Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost, and the profit and loss of secondary lead in previous years are presented [33][34][35] - Import and Export: The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of Chinese lead ingots, the import profit and loss of lead, and the export volume of lead ingots in previous years are presented [37] 3.3 Lead Demand - Lead - Acid Batteries: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, the monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, and the export volume of batteries in previous years are presented. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is rising, and the finished - product batteries are continuously reducing inventory [7][41] - Consumption and End - Users: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles, and the monthly production of motorcycles in previous years are presented. The consumption of automotive lead - acid batteries shows a seasonal decline, but the consumption of lead - acid batteries for energy storage and two - wheeled vehicles is increasing [7][43]