金银周报-20260315

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risk remains the main line for gold, and attention should be paid to the gold - silver ratio strategy for silver. Gold shows a volatile trend, while silver is relatively weak. The price ranges are 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram for gold and 18500 - 22000 yuan/kilogram for silver [3]. - The geopolitical impact has not subsided, and the continuous high price of crude oil has led to concerns about recession. The short - term unilateral drive of gold is in a dilemma, and the trading value is limited. Two scenarios are considered: if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the US - Iran conflict drags on, gold may fall with risk assets but perform relatively strongly; if the US - Iran conflict eases and the crude oil price rises and then falls, the decline of the US dollar will cause gold to rebound, but risk assets may perform even stronger. Currently, the probability of the former scenario is increasing, and there is a risk of accelerated decline for silver [3]. - Although the unilateral trading opportunity for gold is not clear, the conflict has increased the odds of going long on gold, and the downside support is constantly rising. Continued attention should be paid to the regression of the gold - silver ratio, and it is believed that the gold - silver ratio is expected to return to the central position of 80 - 100 in the next 1 - 2 quarters [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Spread - For gold, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold main contract rebounded to - 5.002 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was - 2.1 US dollars/ounce [8][9]. - For silver, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver main contract rebounded to - 0.061 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was - 0.975 US dollars/ounce [8][15]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Spread - The gold spot - futures spread this week was - 1.75 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [20]. - The silver spot - futures spread this week was - 36 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spread - The gold monthly spread this week was 9.46 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [27]. - The silver monthly spread this week was 101 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [30]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - For gold, the total cost of buying TD and shorting Shanghai gold was 24.79 yuan/gram; the total cost of buying Shanghai gold December contract and shorting June contract was 7.16 yuan/gram [33][34]. - For silver, the total cost of buying TD and shorting Shanghai silver was 441.34 yuan/kilogram; the total cost of buying Shanghai silver December contract and shorting June contract was 417.22 yuan/kilogram [35][36]. 3.1.5 Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees for Gold and Silver Spot in Shanghai Gold Exchange - This week, for gold, the deferred fee was mainly paid from long to short, indicating strong delivery power; for silver, the deferred fee was mainly paid from short to long, indicating strong receiving power [37]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 16.49 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rebounded to 51.3% [39]. - The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 230 tons to 10628 tons, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 23.1% [41]. - The gold futures inventory increased by 0.38 tons, and the silver futures inventory increased by 70.61 tons to 326 tons [45]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Positions - This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold rebounded slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver rebounded slightly [47]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - This week, the gold SPDR ETF position decreased by 1.76 tons, and the domestic gold ETF increased by 4.9 tons [50]. - The silver SLV ETF position decreased by 301 tons [54]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio dropped from 62.7 last week to 60 [56]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates - This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.188%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 2.03% [58]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [63]. 3.2.2 Inflation and Retail Sales Performance - Relevant data on US PCE, core PCE, retail and food service sales are presented, showing the inflation and retail sales situation [68]. 3.2.3 Non - Farm Employment Performance - Data on US new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, average weekly working hours, and average hourly wage are provided [70][71][72][73]. 3.2.4 Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions - Not elaborated in detail in the given content 3.2.5 Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index - Not elaborated in detail in the given content 3.2.6 Fed Rate - Cut Probability - Not elaborated in detail in the given content