油价波动率下降，重视氧化钇产业链

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Leading the Market-A" with a maintained rating [5]. Core Insights - Oil price volatility is decreasing, leading to a more rational trading environment. The upward adjustment of oil price levels may benefit the lithium mining industry due to increased demand for new energy [1]. - The price gap for yttrium oxide has exceeded 80 times due to geopolitical tensions and export controls, which may further widen. There are potential supply risks for Japanese industries reliant on zirconia powder and MLCC materials, suggesting a bullish outlook for the zirconia ceramic block industry [1]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on various metals including gold, silver, rare earths, tungsten, copper, aluminum, molybdenum, antimony, germanium, gallium, tantalum, niobium, uranium, tin, and rhenium [1]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold and silver closed at $5021.0 and $79.7 per ounce, with declines of -2.43% and -4.95% respectively. Concerns over stagflation due to the US-Iran conflict have led to a significant reduction in market expectations for interest rate cuts [2]. - Despite short-term price corrections, the long-term trend for gold remains bullish, supported by central bank and ETF purchases. Silver's supply-demand fundamentals are tight, indicating potential price resilience [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices on LME and SHFE were reported at $12735.5 per ton and ¥100000 per ton, reflecting decreases of -1.45% and -0.72% respectively. Supply constraints and recovering demand from downstream industries are expected to support copper prices as they enter a peak demand season [3]. - Aluminum prices increased to $3439.0 per ton on LME and ¥25000.0 per ton on SHFE, driven by geopolitical tensions and recovering domestic demand, particularly in the photovoltaic sector [4]. Energy Metals - Nickel prices fluctuated between ¥132,000 and ¥140,000 per ton, with support from supply concerns related to Indonesian projects. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [9]. - Cobalt prices are stable around ¥432,000 per ton, with supply tightness emerging as export delays affect domestic refining operations. Long-term demand is anticipated to drive prices higher [10]. - Lithium carbonate futures are priced at ¥156,500 per ton, with a positive outlook for demand growth in energy storage and power batteries [11]. Strategic Metals - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide is reported at ¥800,000 per ton, with expectations of stable demand growth and a new inventory replenishment cycle starting in 2026 [12]. - The significant price gap for yttrium oxide indicates a tight supply situation, particularly in Europe, which may lead to price increases. Domestic zirconia ceramic block manufacturers are expected to benefit from increased market penetration [13].