全球通胀压力升温，利率上行施压黄金

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the gold industry is "Oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global inflation pressure is rising, and rising interest rates are putting pressure on gold [1] - Short - term gold price trends are weakly oscillating, and investors should wait for a pull - back to buy. The slowdown in RMB appreciation may keep the domestic gold market at a small premium [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) was - 1.75 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of 0.59 yuan and a change rate of - 25.2%. The domestic - foreign futures price difference (domestic - foreign) was 18.19 yuan/gram, with a change of 26.49 yuan and a change rate of - 319.1%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 0.4% to 105,417 kg, and the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.60% to 32,551,562 ounces. The SPDR ETF holding decreased by 0.16% to 1,071.56 tons. The CFTC gold speculative net long position increased by 1.4% to 102,236 lots. The U.S. Treasury yield rose 3.1% to 4.28%, the dollar index rose 1.56% to 100.50, the SOFR decreased by 0.3% to 3.65%, the U.S. 10 - year break - even interest rate rose 1.17% to 2.3796%, the S&P 500 index fell 1.6% to 6,632, the VIX volatility index fell 7.8% to 27.2, the gold cross - market arbitrage trading increased 2.4% to 7.0, and the U.S. 10 - year real interest rate rose 6.2% to 1.90% [11] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The dollar index rose 1.39%, and the U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.28%. The S&P 500 index fell 1.6%, and the VIX index fell to 27. The U.S. overnight secured financing rate was 3.65%, and the oil price rose 9.8% with the U.S. inflation expectation at 2.38% [15][17] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets mostly fell, with the S&P 500 down 1.6%. Developing country stock markets mostly fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.7%. The real interest rate rose to 1.89%, and the gold price fell 2.9%. The spot commodity index rose, and the dollar index rose 1.39%. The euro depreciated 1.77%, the pound depreciated 1.38%, the yen depreciated 1.24%, and the Swiss franc depreciated 1.95%. The U.S. and German bonds rose, with a U.S. - German yield spread of 1.29%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.82%, and the Japanese bond yield was 2.26%. The dollar index rose 1.41% to 98.9, and non - U.S. currencies depreciated [21][22][27] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - Gold speculative position data is presented, and the SPDR gold ETF holding fell to 1,071 tons. The RMB stopped appreciating and started to depreciate, and the domestic market turned to a premium. Gold and silver prices fell, and the gold - silver ratio rose to 62.3 [34][37] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's February retail sales and industrial added - value data; Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate meeting decision; Wednesday: U.S. February PPI and Bank of Canada interest rate meeting decision; Thursday: Federal Reserve, ECB, and Bank of England interest rate meetings; Friday: China's March LPR [37]