宏观周报：聚焦两会“十五五”蓝图，美以伊冲突持续升级-20260315

Domestic Macro Policy - The growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5%, with an aim to create over 12 million new urban jobs and maintain a CPI increase of around 2%[9] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines 109 major projects across six key areas, including 28 projects focused on advanced technology and productivity, and 25 projects aimed at improving people's livelihoods[10] - Infrastructure investment is estimated to exceed 7 trillion yuan in 2026, focusing on the "six networks" and key sectors[13] Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The monetary policy will remain moderately loose, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to support domestic demand and innovation[18] - The fiscal policy aims for a deficit rate of around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, including the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan in local government bonds[20] Real Estate and Financial Regulation - Real estate policies will focus on supporting housing needs for newly married families and multi-child families, while controlling inventory and optimizing supply through various channels[22] - Financial regulation will deepen reforms in the ChiNext board, introducing more inclusive listing standards to support innovative enterprises[26] International Relations and Risks - The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict has led to significant volatility in global energy markets, with domestic fuel prices experiencing the largest increase in four years[29] - There is a risk of continued divergence in domestic and international monetary policies, with domestic policy execution potentially falling short of expectations[34]