铸造铝合金产业链周报-20260315

Report Information - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: March 15, 2026 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Group [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, overseas disturbances in primary aluminum continued to intensify. The price of AL was strong, outperforming AD, and the overall aluminum product line showed strength. Although the supply of scrap aluminum was becoming more abundant, its price remained firm, following the upward trend of primary aluminum. The rising cost put some pressure on the production of secondary aluminum enterprises, but with the price increase of ADC12, the theoretical profit improved significantly. In terms of supply and demand, secondary aluminum enterprises actively resumed production, and production was in the climbing stage. Downstream demand continued to recover, and enterprises reported stable orders. In the short term, due to cost support and moderate supply release, the price of AD may continue to fluctuate. [6] - As of March 13, the visible inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 13,500 tons to 132,600 tons compared with the previous week, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. From February 1 to 28, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.034 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 25.4%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 2.578 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. Although the high - frequency retail data showed a significant year - on - year slowdown, the decline in the overall production and sales of automobiles was relatively limited. Considering the complex market influencing factors and the "low - start, high - finish" characteristic of domestic automobile sales in recent years, as well as the impact of the early purchase behavior of some consumers due to the expiration of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy at the end of last year, this cannot represent the long - term trend of automobile sales this year. [6] Summary by Directory Trading End - Volume and Price - The report presents data on price spreads such as AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03, as well as information on capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest. [9] Trading End - Arbitrage Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The report calculates the cost of inter - period positive arbitrage for cast aluminum alloy. Taking the AD2604 and AD2605 contracts on March 13, 2026 as an example, the fixed cost is 12.78 yuan/ton, the floating cost is 82.40 yuan/ton, and the total cost is 95.18 yuan/ton. [13] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The market's actual spot quotes fluctuate around the Baotai price. The report calculates the cost of spot - futures arbitrage for cast aluminum alloy. The spot price reference is 24,700 yuan/ton, and the total cost of the spot - futures arbitrage, including storage fees, capital costs, and other expenses, is 24,856.9 yuan/ton. [14][15] Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production has dropped significantly, while social inventory has increased. [17] - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in December 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 194,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.82%. [18] Supply End - Secondary Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been significantly raised, and the price spread between secondary and primary aluminum has fluctuated more intensely. [29] - The regional price spread of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. [34] - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy enterprises has rebounded, but the monthly operating rate remains at a low level. [39] - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum (91%), and the current cost estimate is above the break - even line. [44][45] - The factory and social inventories of cast aluminum alloy have both decreased slightly. [49] - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is closed. [51] - Regarding secondary aluminum rods, data on production and inventory are presented. The production of secondary aluminum rods and the proportion of factory inventory in different regions are also provided. [54][55][56] Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: The year - on - year growth of automobile production is at a low level, raising concerns about automobile consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, small household appliances, and related price indices and inventory indices are presented. [59][60]