霍尔木兹海峡“封航”持续，LPG强势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international market price of LPG continues to rise, especially the arrival price, mainly due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused by the turbulent situation in the Middle East, which seriously hinders the LPG exports from the Middle East. The CFR price continues to rise significantly, but the actual trading volume is limited. The supply from refineries decreases, while the imported volume increases, leading to an overall expansion of the supply level. The weekly average profit of alkylation is -148 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan/ton from last week. The profit of PDH rebounds significantly, showing good profitability. This week, due to the processing of low - cost raw material gas in the early stage by the device, and the propylene market is greatly boosted by international news, the price difference gradually expands, which is beneficial to the device profit. The profit of PDH devices this week exceeds one thousand yuan [5]. - Iran is the largest LPG supplier from the Middle East to China, accounting for about 25% - 29% of China's total LPG imports and about 11% - 12% of domestic total consumption. Over 80% of Iran's exported LPG is directed to China, serving as a "ballast supply" for China's LPG market. The safety of the Strait of Hormuz directly affects 30% of the global LPG maritime trade and is related to the stability of China's energy channels. This week, all energy - chemical related varieties have risen sharply, and industrial profits have been greatly repaired. Currently, the domestic refinery output has not significantly decreased, and the domestic LPG supply is temporarily stable. The impact of the lack of imports from the Middle East is limited. On the demand side, as the profits of downstream industries are repaired, the negative feedback situation is expected to improve, and the LPG demand will increase steadily until a new balance is reached. Overall, LPG faces supply risks globally, but the substitutability of LPG from other regions for that from the Middle East is better than that of crude oil. Therefore, it is expected that LPG will remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PART 01: LPG Market Review - Market Review: The international market price of LPG continues to rise, especially the arrival price. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Middle East situation restricts exports. The CFR price rises, but actual trading is limited. Refinery supply decreases, import volume increases, and the overall supply expands. The alkylation profit improves, and the PDH profit rebounds significantly [5]. - Logic and Views: Iran is an important LPG supplier to China. The Strait of Hormuz affects global LPG trade and China's energy channels. The energy - chemical sector rises, and industrial profits are repaired. Domestic supply is stable, and demand is expected to increase [6]. - Bullish and Bearish Logic: Bullish factors include the firm CP price and the continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Bearish factors are the limited terminal affordability, potential negative feedback from high - priced chemical demand, global LPG supply surplus, limited duration of the Middle East conflict, and the approaching off - season for LPG demand [8][9][10] PART 02: LPG Fundamentals - Supply - Domestic: Data on the operating rates of major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, comprehensive refining profits of major refineries, and the weekly LPG commodity volume in China from 2022 to 2026 are presented [17]. - Supply - Import: Data on the weekly LPG arrival volume in China, import trade profit margin in the South China region, monthly total LPG import volume in China from 2021 to 2025, and the price from the US Gulf Coast to the Far East from 2022 to 2026 are provided [20][21][24]. - LPG Inventory: Data on the weekly LPG port inventory in China, refinery storage capacity ratio in China, port storage capacity ratio in China, weekly factory - level inventory in China, and the weekly production - sales ratios in the South China, East China, and Shandong regions from 2022 to 2026 are given. Also, data on the weekly operating rate of PDH devices in China, PDH production profit margin in China, MTBE production profit margin in Shandong, MTBE capacity utilization rate in China, alkylation oil capacity utilization rate in China, and alkylation oil production profit margin in Shandong from 2022 to 2026 are provided [27][29][31] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data - Import Cost: CP Forward and Current - Month Prices: Data on the propane and butane CP contract prices from 2022 to 2026, the CP crude oil price trend, and the spot price of propane (frozen cargo) in the South China region (CFR) from 2022 to 2026 are presented [40]. - Spot: Domestic Refinery Civil Gas Price and Import Premium: Data on the ex - factory prices of civil LPG at Guangzhou Petrochemical, Shanghai Gaoqiao, and Jinan Refinery from 2022 to 2026 are provided [44]. PART 04: LPG Other Data - LPG Price Difference: Data on the LPG main contract basis and the price difference between the first - and second - month contracts from 2022 to 2026 are presented [49].