豆粕：关注中美经贸磋商，或偏强震荡；豆一：关注市场整体情绪波动，或稳中偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the next week (March 16 - 20, 2026), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate strongly. For soybean meal, after the recent rapid price increase, attention should be paid to the adjustment pressure. If the geopolitical concerns in the Middle East persist, it may fluctuate strongly. For soybeans, attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment [8]. Summary According to the Relevant Catalog 1. Price Performance of US Soybean Futures - From March 9 - 13, 2026, the prices of US soybean futures fluctuated. As of the week of March 13, the weekly increase of the main 05 contract of US soybeans was 1.83%, and the weekly increase of the main 05 contract of US soybean meal was 1.51% [1]. 2. Price Performance of Domestic Soybean Meal and Soybean Futures - From March 9 - 13, 2026, the prices of domestic soybean meal and soybean futures were strong, both reaching stage highs. The weekly increase of the main m2605 contract of soybean meal was 7.31%, and the weekly increase of the main a2605 contract of soybeans was 6.69% [2]. 3. Fundamental Situation of the International Soybean Market - US soybean net sales: The net sales of US soybeans increased month - on - month, which was in line with expectations and had a neutral impact. In the week of March 5, 2026, the export shipment of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 1 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of about 11% and a year - on - year increase of about 15%. The cumulative export shipment was about 27.15 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of about 29%. The weekly net sales of the current year (2025/26) were about 460,000 tons, and the next market year (2026/27) was about 9,500 tons, with a total of about 469,500 tons [2]. - Brazilian soybean import cost: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased week - on - week, which had a positive impact. As of the week of March 13, 2026, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for May 2026 increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the disk increased slightly week - on - week [2]. - Brazilian soybean harvest progress: The harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans was still slower than the same period last year, which had a positive impact. As of the week of March 5, 2026, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 51%, compared with 61% in the same period last year [2]. - USDA supply - demand report: The March USDA supply - demand report was slightly positive. It slightly lowered the global soybean ending inventory in 2025/26, slightly increased the consumption of US soybeans without adjusting the ending inventory, and slightly lowered the inventory - to - consumption ratio of US soybeans [2]. - Weather forecast in South American soybean - producing areas: In the next two weeks (March 13 - 27, 2026), the precipitation in Brazilian soybean - producing areas was uneven, and the temperature in most producing areas was high. The soybean - producing areas in Argentina will have more precipitation on March 17 or 18, and less precipitation at other times, with the temperature first high and then low. The weather impact in South American producing areas is slightly positive [5]. 4. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Situation - Trading volume: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of March 13, 2026, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in mainstream oil mills in China was about 170,000 tons [6]. - Pick - up volume: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of March 13, 2026, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 177,000 tons [6]. - Basis: The basis of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of March 13, 2026, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 228 yuan/ton [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of March 6, 2026, the inventory of soybean meal in mainstream oil mills in China was about 720,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of about 10% and a year - on - year increase of about 32% [6]. - Soybean crushing volume: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week of March 13, 2026, the weekly soybean crushing volume was about 1.97 million tons, and the next week (March 14 - 20, 2026) is expected to be about 2.05 million tons [6]. 5. Domestic Soybean Spot Situation - Soybean price: The soybean price was stable with a slight upward trend. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some parts of Northeast China increased by 160 yuan/ton compared with the previous week, the purchase price in some parts of Inner China increased by 20 - 60 yuan/ton, and the sales price of edible soybeans in the sales area increased by 180 yuan/ton [7]. - Spot sentiment in the Northeast production area: The spot sentiment in the Northeast production area was good, as the strong futures price boosted the confidence of farmers and traders [7]. - Price adjustment in the sales area: The sales area followed the price adjustment in the production area, but the increase was smaller than that in the production area [7].