碳酸锂：供需偏紧，关注需求实际成色

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are tight, and the market focuses more on the actual demand. It is recommended to wait for the callback to the low level for layout. The supply side is at a high level, and the shipping volume of overseas Australian mines and Chilean lithium salts increases. The demand side maintains a high - level operation in March, and the downstream continues to replenish inventory. The fundamentals will support the bottom of the market, and it is advisable to buy on dips. The price range of the futures main contract is expected to be 140,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton. There is no recommendation for inter - period trading, and upstream and downstream enterprises are advised to use options tools for hedging [6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Trends This Week - Lithium carbonate futures prices declined. The 2605 contract closed at 152,080 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4,080 yuan/ton; the 2607 contract closed at 151,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5,020 yuan/ton. The spot price increased by 3,750 yuan/ton to 159,000 yuan/ton. The SMM spot - futures basis (2605 contract) strengthened by 2,240 yuan/ton to - 4,950 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quotation was - 730 yuan/ton, a week - on - week strengthening of 35 yuan/ton. The spread between the 2605 - 2607 contracts was + 680 yuan/ton, a week - on - week strengthening of 940 yuan/ton [2] 2. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Supply - The weekly production of domestic lithium salt plants increased, and the shipping volume of Australian mines increased. The weekly production of domestic lithium carbonate increased slightly, mainly concentrated in the spodumene and mica sectors. The shipping volume of Australian mines and Chilean lithium salts increased, which will supplement the domestic raw material imports. Zimbabwe has suspended the export of unprocessed minerals and lithium concentrates. In 2025, China imported 6209000 tons of lithium concentrates, of which 1191000 tons were from Zimbabwe, accounting for 19.1%. In 2026, Zimbabwe is expected to provide 177000 tons of LCE, accounting for 8.1% of global resources. The current weekly production of domestic lithium carbonate is 23426 tons, an increase of 836 tons from last week [3] Demand - Short - term demand is strong, and the market focuses on the sales volume of electric vehicles in March. Energy storage is less affected by geopolitical events. With the rise of oil and gas prices, the demand for lithium batteries will further increase. However, the sulfur transportation problem in the Middle East will affect the production of downstream cathode materials and suppress the lithium price. According to the latest adjusted data from consulting firms, the production schedule of cathode material plants in March increased month - on - month. The production schedule of lithium iron phosphate cathode increased by 18%, and that of ternary cathode increased by 21%. With the release of the demand for rush - export at the end of March, the overall production is expected to remain at a high level. In the domestic energy storage terminal, last week, there were 28 projects winning bids in the energy storage market, with a total winning bid scale of 2.40GW/6.16GWh, a week - on - week increase of 33.87% and a year - on - year increase of 136%. In addition, procurement projects of several companies were implemented, with a total scale of 10.60GWh. The price of 2 - hour energy storage system EPC is in the range of 0.17 - 1.14 yuan/Wh, and that of 4 - hour energy storage system EPC is 0.65 yuan/Wh [4] Inventory - This week, lithium carbonate continued to destock, with the destocking amplitude narrowing. The industry inventory was 98959 tons, a destocking of 414 tons compared with last week. The downstream placed orders at low points. A total of 458 futures warehouse receipts were cancelled this week, with a total of 36403 lots [5] 3. Market Outlook and Investment Suggestions Market Outlook - On the supply side, domestic supply is at a high level, and the shipping volume of overseas Australian mines and Chilean lithium salts increases, which may marginally boost subsequent raw material imports. The market focuses on the approval progress of Zimbabwe at the end of March. However, the production capacity of lithium sulfate production lines in Zimbabwe is limited, and even if the approval is passed, the actual export volume of lithium sulfate is still low. The Chilean government signed a critical minerals agreement with the United States on March 12, and there are still potential supply - side disturbances. On the demand side, the production schedule in March maintains a high - level operation. When the market declined this week, the downstream continued to replenish inventory and is currently stocked up until mid - March. With low inventory, there will still be restocking plans in the future. The market currently focuses more on the changes in the demand side. According to the data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers in February, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles from January to February was 1.71 million, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. However, according to the statistics of information providers, the average battery capacity per electric vehicle from January to February was about 65 kWh, a year - on - year increase of 32.2%, which partially offsets the expected reduction in demand caused by the decline in electric vehicle sales [6][7] Investment Suggestions - Unilateral trading: Buy on dips. The price range of the futures main contract is expected to be 140,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton. - Inter - period trading: No recommendation. - Hedging: Due to large fluctuations, upstream and downstream enterprises are advised to use options tools for hedging at an appropriate time [7]