贵金属双周报（2026/03/02-2026/03/15）：美伊冲突升级油价上涨，通胀预期抬升致贵金属震荡走弱-20260315

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices are attributed to the escalation of military actions in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, which has led to increased oil prices and inflation expectations [4][5] - The report highlights that gold and silver prices have shown a downward trend, with London spot gold decreasing by 3.40% to $5044.60 per ounce, and silver down by 6.98% to $83.70 per ounce [5][10] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to influence oil prices and inflation, which in turn may affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, creating potential investment opportunities in the precious metals sector [6] Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends - Over the past two weeks, London spot gold fell by 3.40% to $5044.60 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold price decreased by 1.30% to ¥1133.00 per gram. London spot silver dropped by 6.98% to $83.70 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver price fell by 9.11% to ¥20923 per kilogram [5][10][15] 2. U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The U.S. inflation data for February showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, which aligns with market expectations. The core CPI also met expectations, indicating a stable inflation environment prior to the recent geopolitical tensions [4][6] 3. Positioning and Trading Volume - The report notes an increase in Shanghai gold holdings by 3.56% to 313,000 contracts, while silver holdings decreased by 7.98% to 482,900 contracts, indicating a shift in market sentiment [5][10] 4. Domestic and International Price Differences and Gold Benchmark Ratios - The gold price difference between domestic and international markets increased to ¥18.56 per gram, while the silver price difference rose to ¥3030.90 per kilogram, reflecting changing market dynamics [62] 5. Futures Basis Situation - As of the latest report, the international gold basis (spot-futures) increased by $21.50 per ounce, while the domestic gold basis rose to -¥1.75 per gram, indicating a shift in market conditions [71][72]