玻璃纯碱周度报告-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views Glass - Short - term: The market is bullish, trading on the gradual recovery of spot transactions and the cost increase caused by war factors. - Medium - term: It is a volatile market. The main drivers for the bulls are anti - deflation, anti - involution, and future production cut factors in the glass industry. There will be a repeated switch between price increases driven by production cut expectations and price drops due to weak demand and weak basis. In the first half of 2026, the market may be weak and volatile, while in the second half, it may turn bullish [2]. 纯碱 - Short - term: It may be bullish. - Medium - term: It is a volatile market. The market support from March to April comes from potential maintenance peaks on the supply side, improved exports, and cost increases due to war. However, it is pressured by supply surplus, high forward futures premiums, and potential downstream production cuts. Its price movement follows that of glass, but with lower volatility [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Supply - This week, there were slight fluctuations in domestic float glass production lines. Two lines in Shahe and Inner Mongolia were ignited, with a total capacity of 1200 tons, and one line in Shahe was ignited with a capacity of 1050 tons. As of March 12, 2026, there were 295 glass production lines (199,400 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, including 208 in production and 87 on cold repair. The daily output of national float glass was 146,900 tons, a decrease of 1.08% compared to March 5. The average开工率 of the float glass industry this week was 71.05%, a 0.24 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, and the average capacity utilization rate was 74.08%, a 0.39 - percentage - point decrease. As of March 12, the daily loss of float glass was 52,150 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week, and the weekly loss was 361,450 tons, a 1.43% increase [2]. - There are potential new ignition lines with a total daily melting capacity of 15,150 tons/day, potential old - line复产 lines with a total daily melting capacity of 9,440 tons, and potential cold - repair lines with a total daily melting capacity of 11,620 tons/day [6][7][8]. - Usually, the supply side tends to have复产 from the second to the third quarter, but low prices limit the复产 space. From January to March, the market was mainly in a production - cut state, and the current in - production capacity is about 146,000 tons/day. The peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day. The main variable for supply contraction is environmental protection factors (petroleum coke to natural gas), and the supply expansion from复产 is mainly due to capacity replacement [9][10]. Price and Profit - Most prices are stable, with some increasing slightly by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The price in Shahe is around 1060 - 1090 yuan/ton (some prices increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton), in central China's Hubei region it is around 1080 - 1140 yuan/ton (some prices increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton), and in the eastern China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the market price is around 1260 - 1346 yuan/ton (some prices increased by 20 yuan/ton). - The basis has weakened due to the increase in futures prices. The profit using petroleum coke as fuel is about - 7 yuan/ton, and the profits using natural gas and coal as fuels are about - 106 and - 36 yuan/ton respectively [13][17][21][23]. Inventory and Downstream开工 - Recently, market transactions have improved, and inventory has decreased. Currently, the inventory is relatively high, and most regions' inventories are at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. However, recent transactions have improved significantly, and it is expected that the inventory may continue to decline. The key for the later market is whether the market can improve significantly from March to April to boost sales [31][33]. - Regional arbitrage shows that prices in different regions are basically synchronized, and the price difference changes little [35]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - It is necessary to focus on whether the market can improve in mid - to late March or April. The short - term market has slightly improved. As of this Thursday, the mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.0 - 10.5 yuan/square meter, unchanged from the previous week, and the price has changed from a decline to stability. The mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.0 - 17.5 yuan/square meter, also unchanged from the previous week, with some low - price sources being traded [40][42]. Capacity and Inventory - The capacity has slightly contracted. As of a certain time, there were 405 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation nationwide, with a total daily melting capacity of 89,700 tons/day, a 1.82% increase from the previous period. The sample inventory days are about 42.17 days, a 0.22% increase from the previous week, and the growth rate has narrowed by 0.74 percentage points compared to the previous week. Historically, the photovoltaic market may improve slightly after the second quarter, and the inventory may start to decline [44][45][50]. 纯碱 Supply and Maintenance - This week, the supply of纯碱 was adjusted at a high level, with minor changes in enterprise equipment. The weekly output of纯碱 was 809,200 tons, a 0.22 - ton increase from the previous week, a 0.27% increase. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of纯碱 this week was 87%, up 0.23% from last week. - There may be a maintenance peak in the market supply from late March to April. Some enterprises are currently under maintenance or have maintenance plans, such as Shandong Haihua with an 80% operating load, Anhui Debang having been under maintenance since July 8, 2025, etc. Zhongyan Kunshan plans to have a 20 - day maintenance starting on March 25, and Hubei Shuanghuan plans to have a 15 - day maintenance in mid - April [3][54]. Inventory - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.9317 million tons, a 15,500 - ton decrease from last Thursday, a 0.80% decrease. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 1.0136 million tons, a 13,700 - ton decrease from the previous week, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 918,100 tons, a 1,800 - ton decrease from the previous week. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 196,500 tons, an 11.32% increase [3][59]. Price and Profit - The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1250 - 1300 yuan/ton. The low - end price in Shahe is 1250 yuan/ton. The quotes of futures - cash merchants have increased significantly, while the ex - factory prices of manufacturers have changed little, with some light soda ash prices increasing by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of manufacturers are concentrated around 1300 yuan/ton in North China and 1120 - 1200 yuan/ton in Central China [64][68]. - There are several planned or under - construction soda ash projects in China, such as Jinshan Chemical with a planned expansion of 2 million tons/year by the joint - alkali method (no clear plan yet), Xiangheng Yanhua with an 800,000 - ton/year expansion by the joint - alkali method (planned to be put into production from 2026 - 2027), etc. [70].