原油周度思考第288期：抛储影响有限，供给短缺带动油价持续上行-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Bullish logic: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are frequent, the US - Iran war continues, and the Strait of Hormuz restricts vessel passage; the Fed has opened an interest - rate cut channel, which is favorable for commodities; the actual production increase of OPEC+ may be limited [27][28]. - Bearish logic: The problem of oversupply persists, crude oil inventories are accumulating, and the production increase path is difficult to reverse; geopolitical conflicts may ease, and there may be new progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, leading to a decline in geopolitical premiums; the duration of the US - Iran conflict is uncertain; the macro - economy is weakening with a downward expectation [29][30][31]. - Strategy summary: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has become normalized, and the oil releases by various countries are difficult to make up for the supply gap. Some countries have started production cuts to deal with the short - term rapid increase in inventories, and the scale of production cuts may exceed 10 million barrels per day. More than 20% of the world's crude oil transportation passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is the key point of the US - Iran game, and currently only a small number of vessels can pass. The US bombed the Iranian oil export hub of Kharg Island on Friday, escalating the war. Iran's exports are about 1.5 million barrels per day, which has a significant impact on global crude oil supply. The market has shifted from the dissipation of over - heated emotional premiums to the gradual realization of supply problems, and the world still faces a supply reduction risk of over 10 million barrels per day. The current market pricing may not be sufficient to reflect this extreme situation [34]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Core Indicators and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Key Event Review - Fundamentals: The G7 decided not to release strategic oil reserves immediately; Middle East oil production cuts intensified with a reduction of up to 6.7 million barrels per day from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait; the UAE was dealing with a fire at its largest refinery; the EIA adjusted its forecast of US crude oil production; the API crude oil inventory in the US decreased; the IEA proposed to release the largest - ever oil reserves; the US Energy Department planned to release 172 million barrels of oil in 120 days; the number of US oil rigs increased; US crude oil exports decreased, domestic production decreased slightly, commercial crude oil inventories increased, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories increased slightly [11][14][16]. - Macroeconomic data: US inflation data such as CPI and PCE were released, and data on initial jobless claims, GDP, and consumer confidence were also reported [15][16]. - Geopolitical conflicts: Trump mentioned the possibility of sending US troops to Iran; Iran threatened to attack neighboring oil facilities and block the Strait of Hormuz; the US bombed the Iranian oil export hub of Kharg Island and sent additional military forces to the Middle East; Gulf countries tried to persuade the US to avoid attacking Iranian energy facilities [20][23]. - Institutional forecasts: The EIA and Citi Research adjusted their forecasts for crude oil prices [24]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar Key events and data releases include an economic and trade consultation between China and the US, API and EIA crude oil inventories, the Fed's interest - rate decision, initial jobless claims, the European Central Bank's deposit mechanism rate, and the number of US oil rigs [25]. 3.2 Price Basic Data - Crude oil basic prices: The prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Middle - East crude oil showed significant increases on a weekly, monthly, and annual basis [40][41]. - Crude oil forward prices: The forward curves of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil were presented [60][61]. - Crude oil monthly spreads: The monthly spreads of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil were analyzed [62][63]. - Crude oil盘面 spreads: Spreads such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, and Brent - SC were studied [69][70]. - Main oil - type premiums and discounts: Premiums and discounts of various oil types from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, etc. were shown [75][76]. - US dollar index: The relationship between the US dollar index and WTI prices was presented [89][90]. 3.3 World Crude Oil Supply and Demand - World crude oil supply - demand forecasts: OPEC, EIA, and IEA provided supply - demand balance tables and forecasts, showing trends in production, consumption, and inventory changes [97][98][100]. - OPEC major - country production: The production and export data of major OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait were presented, as well as Russia's export data [116][117][130]. - Crude oil supply - demand forecasts: Global supply and demand forecasts from EIA and OPEC were shown, along with estimates of jet fuel demand [135][136][139]. - Refinery maintenance capacity: Maintenance capacity data of global, Mediterranean, US, and Northwest European refineries were presented [140][141]. - Refinery profits: Crack spreads of European and Singapore refined products were analyzed [142][143][146]. - Crude oil inventories: Data on various types of crude oil inventories such as offshore, in - transit, floating storage, and OECD inventories were presented [151][152][160]. 3.4 China and US Oil Product Supply and Demand 3.4.1 US Oil Product Supply and Demand - US oil product production: Data on US crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and other product production, as well as refinery processing volume and capacity utilization, were presented [166][167]. - US crude oil imports and exports: US crude oil import and export data showed changes on a weekly, monthly, and annual basis [177][178][180]. - US crude oil apparent consumption: Data on US crude oil apparent consumption and related derived demands were presented [181][182][184]. - US refinery profits: Crack spreads of US refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were analyzed [185][186][189]. - US crude oil inventories: Data on various types of US crude oil and refined product inventories were presented [190][191][192]. - CFTC position data: WTI commercial and non - commercial positions, as well as ICE + NYMEY crude oil positions, were presented [210][211][213]. 3.4.2 China Oil Product Supply and Demand - Domestic crude oil supply: Data on China's crude oil production and imports were presented [216][217][218]. - Crude oil import freight: Freight data from the Middle East and West Africa to China were presented [219][220]. - Domestic refined product data: Data on refinery operating rates, profits, and inventories of refined products in China were presented [221][223][225]. - Domestic crude oil inventories: Data on Shandong refinery crude oil inventory ratios were presented [228][229]. - Crude oil import quotas: Data on China's crude oil import quotas and allowances over the years were presented [231][232][233]. 3.5 Financial Core Data - Financial data: Data on US initial jobless claims, non - farm payrolls, ADP employment, and inflation (CPI, core CPI, energy CPI) were presented [238][239][243].