——2026年3月15日利率债观察：CD利率有反弹的风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there is a risk of a rebound in CD interest rates [1]. - It is most appropriate to use the 7D OMO interest rate as the benchmark for CD interest rates, while the marginal winning bid rates of repurchase and MLF can only be used as auxiliary evidence [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CD Interest Rate Rebound Risk - On February 6, 2026, the 6M and 1Y AAA - grade CD interest rates were 1.58% and 1.59% respectively, and as of March 13, they had decreased by 7.0bp and 5.3bp respectively. Currently, there is a short - term risk of a rebound in CD interest rates [1]. - From a valuation perspective, CD is currently overpriced relative to the policy rate. The spreads between 6M and 1Y AAA - grade CDs and 7D OMO are at their lowest levels in the past year and at the 5% and 3% percentile levels since early 2024 respectively. Even considering the policy rate cut expectation, the spreads are still only at the 34% and 28% percentile levels since early 2024 [2]. - From a narrative perspective, the market may start to hype up topics such as the reduction of outright repurchase volume and quarter - end liquidity fluctuations in the short - term. The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan outright repurchase operation on March 16, with a net withdrawal of 100 billion yuan of base money on that day [2]. - From a trading perspective, when interest rates have declined significantly and the market is obviously optimistic, investors should be cautious rather than continue to chase the rise, especially in a volatile market this year [2]. CD Interest Rate Benchmark - Some investors believe that the marginal winning bid rates of outright repurchase and MLF should be used as the valuation benchmark for CD interest rates, but this method is not advisable. The central bank affects the medium - term liquidity level of the banking system through the volume of outright repurchase and MLF operations to regulate CD and other money market interest rates. The marginal winning bid rates of outright repurchase and MLF are the result of market - based bidding and are indirectly affected by CD interest rates. Using them as a benchmark may cause trouble for investors [3]. - The current market - oriented interest rate transmission chain in China is from the central bank's policy rate to the market benchmark rate and then to various financial market interest rates. CD interest rates have the attribute of a money market benchmark rate to some extent, so it is most appropriate to use the central bank's policy rate (7D OMO interest rate) as the benchmark, and the marginal winning bid rates of outright repurchase and MLF can only be used as auxiliary evidence. Broadly speaking, it is also appropriate to use the 7D OMO interest rate as the benchmark for the entire interest rate system [4]. - The medium - to long - term trend of CD interest rates can be regarded as the "micro - expression" of monetary policy, which is different from monetary policy signals. Monetary policy signals are actively released by the central bank, while "micro - expressions" are signs formed during the implementation of monetary policy but not necessarily intended by the central bank to be released [4].