CMS·2026-03-15 12:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for aluminum and other price-increasing varieties to withstand macroeconomic pressures [1] Core Views - The report highlights the unpredictable nature of the Iran conflict and liquidity concerns, leading to a significant decline in market risk appetite. The probability of aluminum production cuts in the Middle East increases as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz extends, making aluminum a strong investment choice. Despite short-term macro risks, the long-term upward momentum remains unchanged, and any recent pullbacks present good buying opportunities. The report recommends focusing on aluminum, gold, and tantalum, which have high price increases and military demand proportions, as well as new material stocks related to technological growth [1] Industry Overview - The industry comprises 235 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 820.44 billion and a circulating market value of 714.68 billion [2] - The industry index shows a 1-month performance of -0.4%, a 6-month performance of +37.0%, and a 12-month performance of +77.2% [3] Stock Performance - The report notes that the largest gainers in the week include Zhongyuan New Materials (+13.54%), while the largest losers include Xianglu Tungsten (-19.94%) [3] - The report indicates that tungsten prices increased by 12.96% due to tight supply from upstream sources, while the price of praseodymium oxide decreased by 7.32% due to market sentiment shifts and supply-demand dynamics [3][4] Metal Price Trends - Copper: Domestic copper social inventory decreased, indicating a potential for continued destocking. The report anticipates a long-term bullish outlook for copper prices and copper resource stocks, while short-term focus remains on macro influences [4] - Aluminum: The report emphasizes the impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices, with attention on production decisions by aluminum plants and shipping issues in the Strait of Hormuz. The report notes that overseas aluminum premiums have risen significantly [4] - Nickel: The report indicates a weak fundamental outlook for nickel due to ongoing inventory accumulation, while long-term expectations remain tight [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure due to declining interest rate expectations, but the report maintains a bullish outlook for gold, setting a target price of $6,000 per ounce for the year. The report suggests focusing on companies like Lingbao Gold and Shandong Gold [4] - Silver prices are expected to remain weak due to declining demand and market conditions [4] Rare Earths - The report notes price fluctuations in rare earth elements, with a bullish outlook for praseodymium and neodymium due to tight supply-demand dynamics in emerging sectors like new energy vehicles [4] Uranium - The report highlights a strategic shift in the EU towards nuclear energy, which is expected to increase demand for uranium in the context of rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions [4]