——信用分析周报（2026/3/9-2026/3/15）：1Y短端信用债收益率创新低-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Amid the "asset shortage" of credit bonds, with interest rates continuously fluctuating at low levels and increasing difficulty in capital gain speculation, it is recommended to focus on the stable income value of high - coupon assets[4][43] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Credit Hot Events - Some member banks participated in the market interest rate pricing self - regulatory mechanism meeting and were required to strengthen self - management. The proportion of inter - bank current deposits with an interest rate higher than the 7 - day reverse repurchase OMO policy rate (1.4%) at the end of the quarter should not exceed 10% - 20%. It is expected that the interest rate of over 10 trillion inter - bank deposits may be lowered, which is directly beneficial to short - term bonds. As of March 13, 2026, the 3M/6M inter - bank certificate of deposit rates were 1.50%/1.525%, approaching the lowest point since 2020, driving down the short - term credit bond yields this week[9] 3.2 Primary Market - The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) this week was 11.91 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9 billion yuan compared with last week. The total issuance volume was 41.95 billion yuan, an increase of 15.18 billion yuan, and the total repayment volume was 30.04 billion yuan, an increase of 8.28 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was - 0.44 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.06 billion yuan compared with last week. By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 1.85 billion yuan, an increase of 0.75 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 7.86 billion yuan, an increase of 3.88 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 2.20 billion yuan, an increase of 2.27 billion yuan. In terms of issuance and redemption quantity, the issuance and redemption quantities of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds all increased compared with last week[13][15] 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Transaction Situation - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 1.82 billion yuan compared with last week. Among them, the trading volume of urban investment bonds decreased by 2.61 billion yuan, that of industrial bonds decreased by 1.51 billion yuan, that of financial bonds increased by 2.30 billion yuan, and that of asset - backed securities decreased by 0.54 billion yuan. In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rates of different types of credit bonds increased or decreased compared with last week. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.47%, a decrease of 0.17 pct; that of industrial bonds was 1.76%, a decrease of 0.08 pct; that of financial bonds was 3.16%, an increase of 0.14 pct; and that of asset - backed securities was 0.3%, a decrease of 0.13 pct[18] 3.3.2 Yield - The yield fluctuations of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities this week did not exceed 3BP compared with last week. Specifically, the yields of 1Y AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds decreased by 2BP, 3BP, and 1BP respectively; the yields of 5Y AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds increased by 1BP, 1BP, and 2BP respectively; and the yields of 10Y AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds increased by <1BP, <1BP, and 2BP respectively. Taking AA + - rated 5Y bonds of each type as an example, the yields of different types of bonds all increased to varying degrees this week[22][24] 3.3.3 Credit Spreads - Overall, the credit spreads of AA + communication and non - bank financial industries widened significantly compared with last week, and the credit spread of AA + machinery and equipment industry widened slightly. The fluctuations of credit spreads of other industries and ratings did not exceed 10BP. Specifically, the credit spreads of AA + communication and non - bank financial industries widened by 29BP and 13BP respectively, the credit spread of AA + machinery and equipment industry widened by 6BP, and the credit spread of AA + pharmaceutical and biological industry compressed by 6BP. The fluctuations of credit spreads of other industries and ratings did not exceed 5BP[28] - Urban Investment Bonds: The credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities fluctuated slightly within 3BP this week. By region, except for a slight compression of credit spreads in a few regions, the credit spreads of most regions widened by no more than 5BP[30][33] - Industrial Bonds: Except for the slight widening of the spreads of 1Y AAA, AA, and 3Y AAA renewable industrial bonds, the credit spreads of industrial bonds with other maturities compressed to varying degrees compared with last week[35] - Bank Capital Bonds: The credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds within 3Y mostly compressed slightly compared with last week, while the long - term credit spreads of 5Y and above mostly widened slightly[37] 3.4 This Week's Bond Market Public Opinions - The implied ratings of 27 bond issues issued by Guangzhou Urban Construction and Development Co., Ltd. were downgraded; the implied ratings of 4 bond issues issued by Shenzhen Qianhai Lianyirong Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd. were downgraded; and the entity rating of Zhongnengtiehan Ecological Environment Co., Ltd. was downgraded[39] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - This week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 25.11 billion yuan. Overall, the credit spreads of AA + communication and non - bank financial industries widened significantly, and the credit spread of AA + machinery and equipment industry widened slightly. The credit spreads of other industries and ratings fluctuated within 10BP. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities fluctuated slightly within 3BP. Except for the slight widening of the spreads of 1Y AAA, AA, and 3Y AAA renewable industrial bonds, the credit spreads of industrial bonds with other maturities compressed. The credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds within 3Y mostly compressed slightly, while the long - term credit spreads of 5Y and above mostly widened slightly. It is recommended to focus on the stable income value of high - coupon assets[42][43]