投资策略周报：进一步健全中长期资金入市机制，夯实“慢牛”基础-20260315

Market Review - Geopolitical risks remain a significant disturbance in global capital markets, with concerns over the prolonged US-Iran situation pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel, leading to a rise in domestic black commodities. Major global stock indices experienced a decline, while the A-share Shenzhen Component Index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index saw slight increases. The total trading volume in the A-share market remained around 2.5 trillion yuan, showing a marginal decline from the previous week. Sectors with HALO trading attributes outperformed, driven by high oil prices boosting coal energy demand and the surge in wind and thermal power stocks due to synergies with computing power and energy exports [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - The evolution of the mechanism for long-term capital entering the market is crucial for solidifying the foundation of a "slow bull" market. The impact of the US-Iran conflict on global markets is shifting from short-term risk aversion to stagflation trading, with high oil prices delaying expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. In contrast, the A-share market is currently in a phase of consolidation within a "slow bull" trend, demonstrating strong independence due to domestic energy security fundamentals, a domestic investor structure, and effective market stabilization mechanisms. The policy shift from "guiding" to "establishing mechanisms" for long-term capital entry indicates its importance in stabilizing the capital market. The focus areas for the market include the evolving impact of geopolitical conflicts, energy price trends, and the anticipated adjustments in Federal Reserve policies [2][3][4]. A-Share Market Resilience - The A-share market has shown notable resilience, with the Shenzhen Component Index and Shanghai Composite Index declining less than 2% amid the escalating US-Iran conflict and global market pressures. This resilience is attributed to several factors: the diversification of China's crude oil imports, which mitigates the impact of supply disruptions; the predominance of domestic individual and institutional investors, limiting foreign influence; and proactive regulatory measures that have reinforced the "slow bull" foundation prior to the current geopolitical tensions [3][4]. Policy Support and Long-Term Capital - The top-level design emphasizes the establishment of a market mechanism and ecosystem that supports long-term investments, enhancing the inherent stability and vitality of the capital market. The policy trajectory has evolved from encouraging long-term capital entry to ensuring that such capital is willing to invest, stay, and grow. By the end of 2025, various long-term funds held approximately 23 trillion yuan of A-share circulating market value, reflecting a 36% increase from the beginning of the year. This progress indicates significant advancements in long-term capital market entry, with the potential for increased stabilization efforts from long-term funds in response to external disturbances [4][5]. Sector Focus and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that benefit from rising prices, such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals, as well as those related to domestic computing power synergies and high-end manufacturing, including new energy and electricity. Additionally, sectors supported by industrial policies and showing upward trends in economic conditions, such as semiconductors, AI applications, machinery, and new energy (batteries, photovoltaic equipment), are highlighted as areas of interest [5].