债市微观结构跟踪：中小行买入规模明显上升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - Transaction Thermometer" reading rose 3 percentage points to 58%. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 35%, and the trading heat continued to rise, but the trends of various indicators were different [3][15][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.本期微观交易温度计读数上升 3 个百分点至 58% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - Transaction Thermometer" increased by 3 percentage points to 58%. The consumer goods price ratio, full - market turnover, fund divergence, and listed company wealth management purchase volume percentile increased by 46, 24, 20, and 16 percentage points respectively, while the fund - small and medium - sized bank purchase volume, stock - bond price ratio, and real estate price ratio percentile decreased by 43, 16, and 14 percentage points respectively. The market and policy spreads widened, and their percentiles decreased by 2 and 3 percentage points respectively. Currently, indicators with high congestion include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, allocation disk strength, and policy spread [3][15] 3.2.本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比降至 35% 3.2.1. 全市场换手率持续上升 - In the trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 50%, and the proportion in the neutral range dropped significantly to 33%, while the proportion in the cold range remained at 17%. The full - market turnover rate percentile continued to rise 24 percentage points to 76%, moving from the neutral range to the over - heated range [22] 3.2.2.中小行买入规模明显上升 - In the institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 13%, the proportion in the neutral range dropped to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range rose to 38%. The fund - small and medium - sized bank purchase volume decreased 43 percentage points to 10%, moving from the neutral range to the cold range [26] 3.2.3.政策、市场利差均走阔 - The policy spread rose 1bp to - 3bp, and its percentile decreased 2 percentage points to 97%, still in the over - heated range. The credit spread decreased 1bp to 49bp, the Agricultural Development - National Development spread was basically flat, and the IRS - 3M Shibor spread rose 3bp to 1bp. The average spread of the three was 17bp, and its percentile decreased 3 percentage points to 63%, still in the neutral range [30] 3.2.4.耐用消费品比价大幅上升 - In the price ratio indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 50%, the proportion in the cold range dropped to 25%, and the proportion in the neutral range dropped to 25%. The stock - bond price ratio percentile decreased 16 percentage points to 12%, remaining in the cold range; the commodity price ratio percentile rose 15 percentage points to 80%, moving from the neutral range to the over - heated range; the real estate price ratio percentile decreased 14 percentage points to 67%, remaining in the neutral range; the consumer goods price ratio percentile rose significantly by 46 percentage points, moving from the cold range to the over - heated range [9][30]