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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a trend rating of "oscillation" for lithium carbonate [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to the good production scheduling of cathodes and cells, the direct demand for lithium carbonate is still supported. Coupled with the fact that supply disturbances have not materialized, the overall situation is still regarded as bullish. In the long - term, the narrative of new energy replacing old energy under the Middle East conflict provides support. The strategy is to focus on opportunities to go long on dips [4][17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply Disturbance and Demand Support - Supply Side: There are many disturbances on the supply side. At the mine end, in Jiangxi, the resumption progress of Jianxiawo is still slow. As of March 10, the number of day - shift workers in Jianxiawo slightly increased, but only returned to the level before the Spring Festival. The number of night - shift workers and the logistics index did not increase significantly. In Zimbabwe, the specific time for export resumption is still unclear, and it is expected to affect the monthly supply of 12,000 tons of LCE. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, some countries in Australia and Africa face rising fuel prices and limited reserves, which may lead to increased mining costs or even passive production cuts. At the salt end, the output in March continued to increase, mainly from pyroxene. In March, the arrival of Australian and Zimbabwean lithium concentrates decreased, while the production line load of lithium carbonate pyroxene increased, and lithium ore is expected to be destocked. Currently, the inventory days of lithium ore are at a low level, and the mine end remains in a tight pattern [2][15]. - Demand Side: The market generally recognizes the high growth of energy storage but is skeptical about power demand. In February, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were poor as expected, but exports more than doubled. The battery capacity per vehicle increased significantly. From January to February, the average battery capacity per pure - electric passenger vehicle was 64.5 kWh, a year - on - year increase of 21%; the battery capacity per plug - in hybrid passenger vehicle was 35.2 kWh, a year - on - year increase of 34%. From January to February 2026, the retail unit price of new energy vehicles was 192,000 yuan, significantly higher than the average of 160,000 yuan in 2025, which further proves that the increase in battery capacity per vehicle driven by the high - end development of new energy vehicles effectively compensates for the decline in passenger vehicle sales and may also partially explain why the production scheduling of cathodes and cells is much better than vehicle sales [3][16]. - Inventory Situation: This week, SMM destocked 414 tons, with upstream/medium - stream/downstream destocking of - 1184/- 1120/+ 1890 tons respectively. The destocking amplitude narrowed significantly compared with before. The overall inventory days are 27.8 days, with upstream/medium - stream/downstream at 4.6/10.4/12.8 days respectively. The downstream replenished inventory to the highest level since October last year. After the previous decline in the market, the downstream actively stocked up, resulting in a marginal decline in recent purchasing demand, weakening spot - futures transactions. The downstream mainly makes rigid - demand purchases, with low hanging prices or post - pricing. After updating imports and exports, it may be difficult to destock domestic lithium carbonate in March. The destocking in the first two weeks may lead to inventory accumulation after the arrival of imports in the last two weeks. The destocking expectation remains in April [3][17]. 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Rio Tinto: Rio Tinto completed the first commercial lithium shipment from its Rincon project in Argentina. The 200 - ton lithium carbonate was produced by the existing factory, loaded in 10 containers, and shipped from Buenos Aires Port to Shanghai, China. The Rincon project adopts a phased production model. The initial start - up factory has an annual capacity of 3,000 tons, and a 57,000 - ton expansion factory is under construction, expected to cost $2.5 billion and start production in 2028, reaching full - load operation within three years, with a total battery - grade lithium carbonate capacity of 60,000 tons per year [18]. - Liontown: Australian lithium mining company Liontown reported a statutory after - tax net loss of A$184 million in the six months ended December 31, a significant increase from the A$15 million loss in the same period last year, mainly due to a one - time non - cash accounting expense. In the first half of the year, the company's flagship mine shifted to underground mining and sold 190,000 tons of lithium raw materials. The company said that the 2026 fiscal year guidance remains unchanged, and the lithium spodumene price continued to strengthen in 2026. It is considering a brownfield expansion of the Kathleen Valley mine, and the board will decide whether to approve the plan in the first quarter of the next fiscal year, mainly depending on the lithium price trend [18]. 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain - Resource End: The prices of ore and salt show the same trend. The spot average price of lithium concentrate increased by 2.6% week - on - week to $2,210 per ton [14]. - Lithium Salt: The weekly destocking slowed down. The closing price of LC2605 decreased by 2.6% week - on - week to 152,100 yuan per ton; the spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.4% and 2.5% week - on - week to 159,000 and 155,500 yuan per ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide fluctuated accordingly [13][14]. - Downstream Intermediates: The demand in March is still supported. The prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased to varying degrees [14]. - Terminal: Attention should be paid to the subsequent power sales situation. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in February decreased year - on - year, but the battery capacity per vehicle increased significantly [15][16].