2026年2月金融数据点评：社融新增超预期增长，M1、M2剪刀差进一步收窄

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content about the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The new social financing in February 2026 exceeded expectations, with the new social financing reaching 2.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 146.1 billion yuan, and the stock of social financing increased by 8.2% year - on - year, remaining flat compared with the previous value. The new social financing has exceeded expectations for two consecutive months. The new loans on the corporate side drove the year - on - year growth of RMB loans by 30.0% [4][5]. - The new loans of enterprises and residents showed a differentiated trend, with a strong corporate side and a weak resident side, and the degree of differentiation deepened. The new loans of residents decreased by 26.16 billion yuan year - on - year, while those of enterprises increased by 45 billion yuan year - on - year [6]. - The M2 year - on - year remained flat, the M1 year - on - year increased, and the scissors gap between M1 and M2 narrowed for two consecutive months, indicating that the economic activities such as enterprise production and operation and consumption investment are continuously warming up [7]. - In March, the credit financing demand of real - economy enterprises is expected to pick up marginally. The policy dividends of the Two Sessions and the start of major "15th Five - Year Plan" projects will drive the steady release of supporting financing demand, and the financial aggregate is expected to continue to grow reasonably [7]. - The target range of the 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to be 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5% [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 2.1 2026 February Financial Data Overview - The central bank announced the February 2026 financial data. The new social financing was 2.38 trillion yuan, the stock of social financing increased by 8.2% year - on - year, remaining flat compared with the previous value. As of February 2026, the cumulative increase in the social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. M1 increased by 5.9% year - on - year, M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year, and M0 increased by 14.1% year - on - year. In the first two months, 1.05 trillion yuan of cash was net - injected [4]. 2.2 February Financial Data Focus Points 2.2.1 New Social Financing - The new social financing in February was 2.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 146.1 billion yuan, higher than the average of the same period from 2021 - 2025. The new social financing exceeded market expectations. The median of the forecasts of 13 institutions was 1.85 trillion yuan, and the average was 1.84 trillion yuan. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the issuance speed of government bonds slowed down, and the net financing of government bonds decreased year - on - year. Driven by policy - based financial instruments and two policy measures of the central bank at the beginning of the year, the new loans on the corporate side drove the year - on - year growth of RMB loans by 30.0% [5]. 2.2.2 Differentiated Trend of New Loans of Enterprises and Residents - The new loans of enterprises and residents showed a differentiated trend. The new loans of residents decreased by 26.16 billion yuan year - on - year, with both short - term and long - term loans decreasing year - on - year. The decrease in short - term loans may reflect weak demand on the resident side and more cautious consumption, and may also be related to the repayment of loans with year - end funds. The decrease in long - term loans may be related to the continued downturn in the real estate market. The new loans of enterprises increased by 45 billion yuan year - on - year, with both short - term and long - term loans increasing year - on - year, and the bill financing decreased by 20.43 billion yuan year - on - year. The new loans on the corporate side did not rely on bill padding. The central bank announced two policy measures at the beginning of the year, which, combined with the support of financial instruments at the end of 2025, led to the recovery of the issuance of long - term corporate loans [6]. 2.2.3 Changes in M1 and M2 - In February, M1 increased by 5.9% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage point higher than the previous value; M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year, remaining flat compared with the previous value. The continuous rise of M1 reflects the increase in the activation degree of funds and is also related to residents withdrawing cash during the Spring Festival. The absolute value of the scissors gap between M1 and M2 narrowed for two consecutive months, indicating the continuous activation of residents' deposits and the continuous warming up of economic activities such as enterprise production and operation and consumption investment [7]. 2.2.4 Outlook for March - In March, with the significant acceleration of the post - holiday resumption of production on the production side, the credit financing demand of real - economy enterprises is expected to show a marginal warming trend. The policy dividends of the Two Sessions and the start of major "15th Five - Year Plan" projects will drive the steady release of supporting financing demand, and the financial aggregate is expected to continue to grow reasonably [7]. 2.3 Bond Market View - The target range of the 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to be 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5%. The reasons include: the falsification of the不及 - expected economic recovery, the acceleration of the cycle recovery with the possible wide credit and wide finance in early 2026; if there is a wide - money policy, the yield may decline briefly and then rise; inflation is expected to rebound, and attention should be paid to whether the PPI month - on - month can remain positive; if the inflation month - on - month continues to rise, there is a possibility of tightening funds, and the short - term bond yield will also rise; real estate is a lagging indicator this time and may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [7].