国泰君安期货·君研海外：境外权益（港美股）周度策略报告-20260315

Report Title - Overseas Equity (Hong Kong and US Stocks) Weekly Strategy Report [1] Report Date - March 15, 2026 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The market's concerns about the continued Middle East conflict have intensified this week, and the stagflation trading continues. The US stock energy sector has continued to lead the rise, and the US consumer confidence index has declined, while the VIX has risen [3]. - The three major US stock indexes have all fallen this week. It is recommended to maintain a relatively defensive stance (military/energy) in the short term and wait for the situation to become clearer before buying at low prices [6]. - The market logic has shifted from simple risk - aversion to stagflation. Different scenarios of the "US - Iran conflict" have different impacts on the equity market, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [9]. - In the short term, maintain a defensive stance in the US stock market and pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the GTC conference next week. In the long - term, US stock investment returns to fundamental endogenous factors, and hardware + HALO assets are favored [12]. - Geopolitical factors have continued to disrupt the market this week, and funds have favored defensive allocations in the Chinese - funded stock market. The overall Chinese - funded stock market is still in a state of shock and consolidation, and the chemical and coal sectors are relatively strong [13][14]. - A - shares have relatively stronger HALO attributes. In the short term, maintain a defensive stance, and in the medium - term, A - shares are better than Hong Kong stocks [16][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs US Stocks - Market Performance: This week, the US stock energy sector led the rise. The three major US stock indexes fell due to concerns about the Middle East conflict and AI - related trading. The US consumer confidence index declined, and the VIX rose [3][6]. - Scenario Analysis of "US - Iran Conflict": - Scenario 1: Quick Resolution: In the short term, the growth style will have stronger elasticity. In the medium - term, the market will return to the fundamental trading logic [9]. - Scenario 2: Prolonged Consumption: In the short term, stagflation trading will be repeatedly contested, and the global equity market will experience high - volatility shocks. Energy, oil transportation, and coal - chemical industries have hedging properties. In the medium - term, strategies can be long - term in concept but short - term in operation [9]. - Scenario 3: Comprehensive Regional War: The traditional energy sector may benefit in the short term, but the equity market as a whole will face systemic downward risks [9]. - Investment Strategy: - Short - term: Maintain a defensive stance (military/energy), reduce the overall risk preference of the portfolio, and pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the GTC conference next week [12]. - Long - term: Focus on hardware + HALO assets, including offensive HALO assets (AI - related physical assets) and defensive HALO assets (traditional physical assets relatively far from AI) [12]. Chinese - Funded Stocks - Market Performance: This week, the A - share and Hong Kong stock markets fell overall, and defensive sectors led the rise [13]. - Investment Strategy: - Short - term: Maintain a relatively defensive stance (energy, coal - chemical, and dividend stocks) and wait for the situation to become clearer before buying at low prices [18]. - Medium - term: HALO assets are mainly concentrated in A - shares. Although Hong Kong stocks have valuation advantages, their fundamental reversal requires the resolution of some issues [18].