一周全球宏观与资产复盘：“滞胀”担忧可能会加剧演绎

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - Concerns about "stagflation" are intensifying due to rising oil prices, which have exceeded $100 per barrel, impacting inflation expectations and suppressing the Federal Reserve's rate cut outlook[3] - The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield has risen, indicating tightening liquidity, while the dollar index has surpassed 100, driven by risk aversion[10] - In February, China's CPI rose by 1.3% year-on-year, marking the highest increase in nearly three years, primarily due to concentrated consumer demand during the Spring Festival[12] Group 2: Market Performance - Domestic A-shares outperformed overseas markets, driven by the Two Sessions, with strong performances in sectors like coal, electricity, and construction materials[9] - Despite pressure on overseas non-ferrous metals, domestic commodities like rebar, iron ore, and coking coal showed resilience, with agricultural products continuing to rise due to inflationary pressures[10] - The VIX index closed at 27, indicating that fear in the U.S. stock market is not extreme, suggesting limited potential for a significant rebound in the short term[10] Group 3: Export and Import Data - China's exports in January-February increased by 21.8% year-on-year, significantly higher than the market consensus of 6.4%, with a month-on-month growth of 9.7%[18] - Exports to the U.S. saw a remarkable month-on-month increase of 21.3%, reflecting a substantial recovery compared to December[17] - Imports also rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 19.8% in January-February, driven by machinery and high-tech products[18]