伊朗事件对大宗商品市场影响追踪报告（十）：油价持续上行，滞涨交易强化

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is based on the Iran geopolitical conflict, comprehensively analyzing its impact on major domestic futures varieties, covering dimensions such as liquidity risk, market expectations, and volatility changes [3]. - The latest development shows that due to frequent ship - attack incidents, crude oil prices have soared to around $100, intensifying the stagflation trade. Overseas markets saw synchronous declines in base metals and precious metals on Friday night, with base metals more sensitive to demand experiencing larger drops [3]. - Looking ahead, the market is gradually aware that the Strait of Hormuz may be blocked for a long - term, and the crude oil supply gap may exceed 10 million barrels per day, potentially creating the largest gap in over 40 years. In the short - term, crude oil prices may remain strong, and chemicals are generally considered for buying on dips given the reduced load of domestic refineries. For non - ferrous metals, aluminum, which is greatly affected by geopolitical conflicts, should be focused on. Some varieties in the agricultural and black sectors are more affected by the energy attribute, so changes in oil prices should be monitored [3]. Group 2: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The market realizes that the Strait of Hormuz may be blocked long - term, and the crude oil supply gap may exceed 10 million barrels per day, potentially the largest in over 40 years. The multi - empty intensity rating is 3, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 3 [7]. Asphalt - The disk profit is too low, and supply is continuously shrinking. Energy and chemical bears use BU to cover short positions and drive profit repair. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Fuel Oil - Although the price in the Singapore market dropped on Friday, there is still a spot shortage. The reduction in logistics due to the blockade will continue to materialize, and there is still support for the price. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Despite the price drop in the Singapore market on Friday, due to the transfer of refueling demand, inventory in the Singapore area decreased rapidly. Additionally, there is a probability that domestic refineries will increase the refined oil yield, which will lead to a decline in the low - sulfur supply in coastal areas, benefiting the LU disk. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Methanol - There is still a strong expectation for the spot. It is expected that the price center of methanol will continue to rise before the geopolitical situation eases. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Para - Xylene, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - All are recommended for buying on dips. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Short - Fiber - The Strait navigation has not been restored, and the reduction in actual logistics may have a long - tail effect. Refineries and PTA plants may face production cuts, still posing a risk of cost increase. Downstream raw material inventory is low. It is recommended to buy on dips and not chase the high. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Bottle Chips - Similar to short - fiber, there is a risk of cost increase. Spot factories have tight shipments, and near - month liquidity is tight. Pay attention to the upward risk and buy on dips. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Polypropylene - Geopolitical risks continue to escalate. Crude oil and propane supplies are reduced due to the shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz, which has affected domestic supply. The overall import scale of PP is not high, and Middle - Eastern sources account for about 17% of the total imports in 2025, with limited Iranian sources. The shipping disruption affects near - term supply. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Polyethylene - The supply of upstream cracking raw materials such as naphtha and propane may be severely tightened due to the shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic cracking has started to reduce the load, and derivatives are stronger in the near - term. In terms of PE imports and exports, Iranian sources accounted for 8.4% of imports in 2025, and the proportion of standard linear products is relatively low at 2.6%. The impact on LD, HD, and LL imports decreases in turn. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Offset Printing Paper - OP production capacity and demand are mainly domestic, and energy price changes have little impact on the industrial chain profit. Considering the relatively low funds in the disk, there is little liquidity premium. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate. The multi - empty intensity rating is 0, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 0 [7]. Synthetic Rubber - In the short - term, cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber is expected to run strongly. From a macro perspective, the short - term geopolitical conflict has intensified, and energy and chemical commodities are expected to have significant valuation premiums. Fundamentally, the explicit inventory of butadiene has decreased, and under the drive of speculative sentiment, the fundamental pressure on the synthetic rubber industrial chain has decreased. Overall, the price of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber is expected to run strongly, and the geopolitical conflict may significantly increase the intraday volatility. The trading logic changes quickly following geopolitical news. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Urea - It is policy - priced, with limited fluctuations and an upward - moving price center. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Container Shipping Index - At the spot level, the actual loading list is differentiated, with greater pressure on the PA alliance and better conditions for other alliances. Shipping companies can only roll the emergency fuel surcharge into FAK, but the adjustment of FAK is chaotic. The disk 04 contract partially prices in the increase in the emergency fuel surcharge. The overall trend is still dominated by geopolitical sentiment. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Caustic Soda - Affected by the Middle - East situation, ethylene and propylene affect downstream chlorine - consuming products, leading to passive production cuts of caustic soda overseas, and the export price of caustic soda has risen significantly. At the same time, there has also been a reduction in the load of ethylene - based PVC in China, affecting caustic soda. However, although the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve, the disk premium is relatively large, and the overseas plant dynamics and Chinese export signing situation need to be continuously tracked. The multi - empty intensity rating is 0, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Polyvinyl Chloride - Affected by the Iranian situation, chlor - alkali production in South Korea and other places has been reduced, and the production capacity of ethylene - based PVC in China has also decreased. In the future, Asian ethylene - based production capacity will face production - cut pressure. However, although the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve and the price has risen, the trading volume of PVC on the disk has not increased significantly. The core of the market lies in the impact time of the Middle - East situation. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. LPG - The export problem in the Middle - East has not been resolved, and the supply - side problem is still expected to impact the market. There is support below PG, and attention should be paid to changes in the cost side. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Propylene - The import of raw material propane is blocked, and PDH plants are expected to shut down centrally. PL is still expected to rise further under the background of rising costs and tightening supply. Attention should be paid to changes in the cost side. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Last week, in addition to the impact of geopolitical events, concerns about future spot arrivals drove the disk to rise. Next week, attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation, crude oil fluctuations, Sino - US economic and trade consultations, and domestic spot sentiment. Risk control is necessary. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [8]. Palm Oil - The trading of the energy attribute of palm oil continues. It is reported that the Indonesian government is considering banning the export of raw palm oil and other resource products. If implemented, it may lead to a trend - like increase in palm oil. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [8]. Soybean Oil - The cost premium of US soybeans and the customs clearance problem of the soybean system are still the current hot topics. With the support of import costs and export profits, soybean oil can follow the upward trend of palm oil and is expected to run strongly in the short - term. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [8]. Rapeseed Oil - The fundamental driving force for the rise of rapeseed oil itself is not strong. It is expected to be mainly affected by the trends of crude oil and palm oil. Palm oil may rise significantly due to the remarks of the Indonesian government, which will drive rapeseed oil to rise, but the expected increase is less than that of palm oil. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [8]. Group 4: Black Metals Iron Ore - It shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. From the perspective of the balance sheet, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is loose. From a marginal perspective, the negotiation has encountered setbacks, more BHP iron ore may be locked, steel mills' maintenance has decreased and they are gradually resuming production, and the US - Iran conflict has increased transportation costs, driving the ore price to rebound. The strategy is to focus on the 5 - 9 positive spread. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [10]. Coking Coal - There is still an upward risk. On one hand, the recent geopolitical risk will amplify the price elasticity of coking coal. In mid - to late March, coal production and exports in Indonesia will also decline due to Ramadan, exacerbating the tightness of the overseas energy market. On the other hand, affected by the rise in energy and chemical prices, the profits of coking plants have improved, and there is an expectation of capacity utilization repair. The replenishment behavior has also intensified the tightness of the spot market for coking coal. The tightening of spot liquidity and the behavior of upstream producers hoarding goods will drive the price to rise. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [10]. Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals Aluminum - Sufficient attention should be paid to the tightness of the overseas spot market. The SMM spot discounts in East and South China are relatively stable. It is reported that some spot - futures arbitrageurs are buying, and the spot - futures positive spread space is acceptable. There is also an expectation of future spot premiums. If the Strait logistics continues to be blocked, the export of Middle - East aluminum ingots and the supply interruption of raw materials will intensify. The upward strength of LME aluminum remains, which will drive the domestic market. In the past week, the disk pricing was hesitant, and aluminum may have been dragged down by the TACO expectation to some extent. While paying attention to long - position opportunities in aluminum, protective positions should also be established. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [11]. Alumina - It follows the energy and chemical sector, and the trading sentiment is upward. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [11].