海上观日：日本股市策略周报：油价冲击叠加日元贬值，日本股市阶段性回调-20260315

Core Insights - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant pullback due to rising oil prices and a weakening yen, leading to increased risk aversion among investors [1][3][20] - The market's short-term trajectory is highly dependent on oil prices, with concerns about stagflation if prices remain elevated around $100 [1][21] - Despite short-term market weakness, improving economic fundamentals and policy stability in Japan are expected to provide some support [5][21] Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 3.24% last week, while the broader TOPIX index decreased by 2.36% [3][15] - The rise in oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has significantly impacted investor confidence, with the price of crude oil nearing $120 [3][20] - The long-term interest rates in Japan increased, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 2.15% to 2.22% [4][15] Economic Fundamentals - Recent data revisions indicate a stronger-than-expected GDP growth rate of 1.3% for Q4 2025, up from an initial estimate of 0.2% [5][21] - The revisions were primarily driven by improvements in corporate capital investment and household consumption, indicating resilience in domestic demand [5][6] Policy Responses - The Japanese government has implemented measures to mitigate the impact of rising energy prices, including the release of strategic oil reserves and gasoline subsidies [6][21] - However, if high oil prices persist, there may be fiscal pressures on the government, potentially leading to adjustments in subsidy levels and increased inflationary pressures [6][7] Sector Performance - Energy-sensitive sectors, particularly real estate and financials, have been the most affected, with significant declines in stock prices for major companies [7][15] - Despite market volatility, domestic individual investors have been increasing their positions, viewing the market pullback as a short-term adjustment [7][15]