大类资产配置周报20260313-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the performance of major asset classes in the week from March 9th to March 13th, 2026, including the equity market, convertible bond market, fixed - income market, and commodity market, and explains the reasons for the market trends [5][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Major Asset Performance - The equity market adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.51%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased slightly. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.13%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.62% [5][10]. - The convertible bond market weakened. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.1% in a week and 3.38% in a month, and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index fell 1.52% in a week and 4.02% in a month [5][10]. - The bond market weakened, with short - end adjustment. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield declined by 0.9bp, while the yields of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose [5][10]. - Commodity futures showed mixed performance, with strong performance in crude oil. COMEX gold fell 3.05%, COMEX silver fell 4.78%, LME copper fell 1.04%, LME aluminum rose 0.23%, WTI crude oil rose 8.59%, SHFE rebar rose 1.75%, CBOT soybeans rose 1.83%, and CBOT corn rose 1.36% [5][11]. 3.2 Equity Market Performance - Stocks - The equity market fluctuated downward this week. The Shanghai Composite Index oscillated and recovered at the beginning of the week, continued to rise in the middle of the week, and fell on Friday [13]. - In terms of industries, most industries rose. The construction and coal sectors led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the losses. The national defense and military industry fell 5.3%, non - ferrous metals fell 5.07%, and petroleum and petrochemicals fell 4.22%. The construction sector rose 7.7%, coal rose 5.85%, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery rose 5.43% [13]. - The market rotation was still active. The market style switched again. Affected by the Two Sessions and geopolitical risks, the construction and energy sectors led the gains, the consumer sector adjusted, and the technology - growth sectors such as semiconductors and chips were relatively weak [13]. 3.3 Equity Market Performance - Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market followed the stock market down this week. As of March 13, 2026, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.1%, and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index fell 1.52%. In the past month, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 3.38%, and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index fell 4.02%. The trading volume of convertible bonds decreased, while the trading volume of underlying stocks recovered [17]. - The convertible bond market was weak this week, following the stock market adjustment. Affected by the Iran situation, the decline narrowed compared with last week. Funds switched from sectors with high previous gains such as military, technology, and non - ferrous metals to low - valuation and policy - favored sectors such as construction and coal [17]. 3.4 Fixed - Income Market Performance - Bond yields mostly rose this week, with the 1 - year Treasury bond yield slightly declining. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield declined by 0.9bp, while the yields of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose [21]. - On March 12, the central bank governor emphasized the "moderately loose" monetary policy, and the Ministry of Finance refined the use of 1.3 trillion ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds, alleviating market concerns about long - term interest rate supply. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of fiscal tools and the actual performance of inflation data [21]. - In terms of the capital side, the central bank had net withdrawals this week, mainly due to the continuous withdrawal of cash after the Spring Festival and the high level of bank system liquidity. It is expected that the central bank will maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity [22]. 3.5 Commodity Market Performance - The Nanhua Commodity Index mostly strengthened this week, with strong performance in energy and chemicals and weak performance in precious metals. The comprehensive index rose 5.18%, energy and chemicals rose 9.76%, metals rose 1.11%, precious metals fell 1.52%, industrial products rose 6.29%, and agricultural products rose 2.72% [32]. - The gold price showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Geopolitical conflicts between the US, Israel, and Iran led to a rise in international oil prices, and many countries released strategic oil reserves. The uncertainty of the US - Iran conflict still exists, and the hedging value of precious metals is still prominent. It is expected that precious metals will maintain high - level volatility in the short term [33][35].