等待利空钝化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Inflation expectations are rising, and long - term interest rates are increasing. The bond market is facing challenges with unclear main positive factors and many negative side factors. The stability of the capital side is crucial for the bond market trend. It is advisable to wait for the long - term interest rates to rise and the negative factors to be dulled before making allocations. Currently, 3 - year treasury bonds and government - backed financial bonds, 1 - year policy - bank bonds, and 1 - year certificates of deposit can be considered as defensive options [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Inflation Expectations Rise, and Long - Term Interest Rates Increase - From March 9 - 13, inflation concerns affected bond market pricing. Long - term bond yields generally rose (e.g., 10 - year treasury bond active bond yield rose 3.2bp to 1.82%), while short - term yields showed mixed trends (1 - year treasury bond active bond yield fell 1.0bp to 1.26%). The continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp increase in oil prices, and inflation data exceeded expectations, causing concentrated release of bearish sentiment in the domestic bond market [8][10][11] - The central bank's continuous net withdrawal of funds led to a decline in the reverse repurchase balance, but the capital side remained in a self - balancing state. The interest rate curve steepened, with long - term varieties rising under the drive of inflation expectations and short - term varieties showing a downward trend. The performance of credit bonds was similar to that of interest - rate bonds [12] 3.2 Bond Market Challenges: Unclear Main Positive Factors, Many Negative Side Factors - Fundamental improvement: Recent economic data such as 1 - 2 month exports, February inflation, and financial data were stronger than market expectations. However, the Spring Festival effect was the main factor for the short - term improvement. The marginal improvement of data may weaken the market's "loose money" expectation to some extent [2][19][20] - Inflation concerns are difficult to ease: Since the fermentation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict at the end of February, the price increases of various commodities have spread. The price increases of oil, shipping, chemical products, and agricultural products have made the market always concerned about inflation shocks, which are difficult to disprove in the short term [21][23] - The instability of institutional behavior has increased: Institutions' tolerance for short - term losses has decreased significantly. Once potential risks appear, trading desks such as funds and securities firms will reduce their positions consistently, which may amplify interest rate fluctuations [26] 3.3 As the Quarter - End Approaches, the Scale of Wealth Management Products Declines 3.3.1 Weekly Scale: A Month - on - Month Decrease of 44.5 billion yuan - In the first week of March, the scale of wealth management products rebounded, but the increase was weaker than the historical average. As the quarter - end assessment approached, the scale decreased by 44.5 billion yuan to 33.45 trillion yuan from March 9 - 13. It is expected that the scale will continue to shrink seasonally in the next two weeks [34] 3.3.2 Wealth Management Risks: The Retracement of Equity - Linked Products Narrows, and the Proportion of Products with Negative Yields Decreases - The retracement of equity - linked products narrowed, driving down the proportion of products with negative yields. The overall negative yield proportion of wealth management products decreased by 3.70pct to 5.59% this week. The rolling negative yield proportion in the past three months was 0.31%, slightly rising by 0.02pct from the previous week [41] - The proportion of wealth management products breaking the net value and those with unmet performance both decreased. The overall product break - even rate decreased by 0.20pct to 0.34%, and the overall performance non - compliance rate decreased by 0.3pct to 24.8% [50] 3.4 Leverage Ratios: Both Inter - Bank and Exchange Markets Decline - From March 9 - 13, the central bank continuously withdrew funds, and the capital interest rate fluctuated slightly. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the average overnight proportion also declined slightly [56] - The inter - bank leverage ratio decreased slightly from 107.63% to 107.44%, the exchange leverage ratio decreased from 122.22% to 121.74%, and the non - bank institution leverage ratio decreased from 113.52% to 112.79% [60] 3.5 Interest - Rate Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds Compress Duration - From March 9 - 13, the duration of interest - rate medium - and long - term bond funds was compressed, with the weekly average duration decreasing from 3.43 years to 3.34 years. The duration of credit - type medium - and long - term bond funds increased slightly, with the weekly average duration rising from 2.05 years to 2.20 years [67][68] - The duration of medium - and short - term bond funds and short - term bond funds showed different trends. The duration of medium - and short - term bond funds decreased from 1.41 years to 1.38 years, while the duration of short - term bond funds increased from 0.71 years to 0.76 years [73] 3.6 The Issuance of Government Bonds Accelerates - From March 9 - 13, the planned issuance of government bonds was 85.72 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous week. The actual issuance scale may reach 92.72 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds from March 16 - 20 is expected to expand [75] - In terms of local bonds, the issuance plan of 77.3 billion yuan of special bonds for debt resolution in 2026 was disclosed this week. From January 1 to March 20, the cumulative net issuance of local bonds was 2.3395 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 293.9 billion yuan [77][78] - In terms of treasury bonds, the planned issuance from March 16 - 20 is 51.5 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 45.5 billion yuan. From January 1 to March 20, the cumulative net issuance of treasury bonds was 931.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 291.2 billion yuan [79] - In terms of policy - bank financial bonds, 2.7 billion yuan will be issued on March 16, with a net issuance of - 2.53 billion yuan. From January 1 to March 16, the cumulative net issuance of policy - bank financial bonds was - 530 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 42.65 billion yuan [80]