2026年春季海外宏观展望：结构性“滞胀”

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The global macroeconomic recovery continues, with manufacturing and services PMI improving, indicating resilience in major economies like the US, Europe, and Japan[2] - Since February 2026, geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and rising oil prices have increased the risk of stagflation, particularly for energy-dependent economies like the Eurozone and Japan[2] - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index remains positive, with both manufacturing and services PMIs above 50, reaching recent highs[2] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The conditions for a repeat of the 1970s "stagflation" are insufficient, as long-term inflation expectations remain stable and the labor market is not tight[2] - A 10% increase in oil prices is estimated to raise overall CPI by approximately 20-30 basis points and core CPI by about 4-7 basis points[2] - The Federal Reserve's baseline assumption for interest rate cuts in 2026 has been revised to "at most once" due to the impact of rising oil prices on inflation expectations[2] Group 3: Geopolitical and Technological Risks - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the narrative surrounding the AI bubble face three challenges: sustainability of capital expenditure, disruptive potential for the software industry, and risks in private credit[2] - Long-term, the Middle East conflicts may accelerate structural stagflation, characterized by commodity inflation and service deflation, driven by AI and energy transition demands[2] - The interplay of demand surges and supply constraints may lead to a "super cycle" in commodities, while services may experience deflation due to automation and AI[2]