贵金属：贵金属日报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current gold price is in a sideways consolidation trend. The soaring oil price in the context of the US - Iran war has pushed up market inflation expectations and made the market re - evaluate the US economy's ability to withstand energy shocks. The US GDP in Q4 2025 only grew by 0.7%, and the PCE and core PCE data in January 2026 were 2.8% and 3.1% year - on - year respectively, still significantly higher than the Fed's 2% policy target. In the current context of rising energy prices, it may increase the upward pressure on prices, making the Fed cautious about the pace of interest rate cuts. It is difficult to see rapid easing policy signals in the short term, which will suppress precious metal prices. In the short term, the price may still be in a volatile range. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 1050 - 1200 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 20000 - 22000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 1.31% to 1126.64 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 20682.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 0.82% to 5020.00 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 1.82% to 79.86 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.28%, and the US dollar index was 100.45 [2] - In January 2026, the US PCE price index rose 2.8% year - on - year, slightly down from 2.9% in December, and increased 0.3% month - on - month. The overall inflation continued the downward trend; the core PCE rose to 3.1% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, still significantly higher than the Fed's 2% policy target [2] - The US called on many countries to send warships to the Middle East, and countries such as South Korea, Japan, and France have responded. The US government may announce the organization of a multi - national joint escort in the Strait of Hormuz as soon as this week. The Israeli military spokesman said that military operations against Iran will last at least three more weeks, and there are still thousands of targets to be attacked [2] 3.2 Gold and Silver Data Summary - COMEX Gold: The closing price of the active contract was 5023.10 US dollars/ounce (down 1.20% from the previous day), the trading volume was 15.53 million lots (up 8.38%), the open interest was 41.40 million lots (up 1.02%), and the inventory was 1012 tons (down 0.32%) [5] - LBMA Gold: The closing price was 5044.60 US dollars/ounce (down 1.67%), the closing price of the active contract in yuan/gram was 1133.00 (down 1.32%), the trading volume was 29.04 million lots (up 16.09%) [5] - SHFE Gold: The open interest was 31.30 million lots (up 1.02%), the inventory was 105.42 tons (unchanged), the precipitation funds were 56.744 billion yuan (outflow of 0.31%), the closing price of AuT + D was 1131.25 (down 1.31%), the trading volume was 52.27 tons (up 54.34%), and the open interest was 238.27 tons (up 0.34%) [5] - COMEX Silver: The closing price of the active contract was 80.65 US dollars/ounce (down 3.94%), the open interest was 11.55 million lots (up 1.88%), and the inventory was 10629 tons (down 0.76%) [5] - LBMA Silver: The closing price was 83.70 US dollars/ounce (down 3.83%), the closing price of the active contract in yuan/kilogram was 20923.00 (down 5.16%), the trading volume was 90.78 million lots (up 27.54%) [5] - SHFE Silver: The open interest was 48.29 million lots (down 1.11%), the inventory was 326.57 tons (up 5.35%), the precipitation funds were 27.279 billion yuan (down 6.22%), the closing price of AgT + D was 20887.00 (outflow of 4.41%), the trading volume was 226.13 tons (down 45.61%), and the open interest was 2886.17 tons (up 0.53%) [5] 3.3 ETF Holdings - Gold ETFs: SPDR US: The closing price was 460.84 US dollars (down 1.29%), the holding volume was 1071.56 tons (down 0.40%), the precipitation funds were 17.377 billion US dollars (down 2.06%), and the trading volume was 11.6313 million shares (down 2.26%); iShare US: The holding volume was 487.14 tons (down 1.40%); GBS UK, PHAU UK, and GOLD UK had unchanged holdings; SGBS Switzerland: The holding volume was 35.17 tons (down 0.07%) [65] - Silver ETFs: SLV US: The closing price was 72.69 US dollars (down 4.96%), the holding volume was 15460.18 tons (down 0.51%), the precipitation funds were 4.1593 billion US dollars (down 4.32%), and the trading volume was 44.6836 million shares (up 50.14%); ETPMAG Australia, PSLV Canada, and CEF Canada had unchanged holdings [65]