五矿期货早报|有色金属：有色金属日报2026-3-16-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the ongoing Middle - East conflict, inflation and economic slowdown pressures are increasing, which suppresses market sentiment. However, the key mineral resource attributes provide support. Different metals have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [1][2]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply - demand relationship is expected to improve marginally with domestic downstream copper industries resuming work and production, and the shortage of scrap copper substitution [2]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term. Overseas supply threats are large, and domestic inventories are expected to peak and decline with the increase in downstream开工率 and the expansion of import losses [4]. - There is a possibility of further decline in lead prices. The import window is open, and the lack of domestic demand and the increase in short - position concentration may lead to a price drop [7]. - Zinc prices face a risk of downward breakthrough. The zinc industry is in a weak state, with high inventory accumulation and weak speculative sentiment [10]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a wide range at a high level. Supply is tight, and demand is in a weak recovery state [12]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. The RKAB quota reduction policy in Indonesia supports the price, but short - term supply - demand contradictions are limited [14]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The inventory is decreasing, and the market is waiting for industrial event catalysts [18]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be observed. The short - term supply is tight, but the long - term surplus pattern is difficult to change [21]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate. Supply pressure is emerging, demand release is moderate, and cost support exists [24]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to strong cost, improving demand, and supply - side disturbances [27]. 3. Summary by Metal Category Copper - Market Information: On March 16, LME copper 3M contract closed down 1.64% to $12,735/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 99,730 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 525 tons to 311,875 tons, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 43.3 tons. The spot premium in East China and Guangdong remained stable, and downstream procurement was cautious [1]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Short - term copper prices may fluctuate. The copper concentrate refining fee is decreasing, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve marginally. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 98,500 - 101,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,500 - $13,000/ton [2]. Aluminum - Market Information: On March 16, LME aluminum 3M contract closed down 2.66% to $3,439/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,965 yuan/ton. SHFE weighted contract positions decreased by 1.4 tons to 68.9 tons, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 tons to 36.2 tons. LME inventory decreased by 0.2 tons to 44.5 tons [3]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. Overseas supply threats are large, and domestic inventories are expected to decline. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 24,600 - 25,600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,380 - $3,520/ton [4]. Lead - Market Information: On March 16, SHFE lead index closed down 0.30% to 16,586 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S decreased by 4.5 to $1,933/ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased by 0.4 tons to 7.77 tons on March 12 [6]. - Strategy Viewpoint: There is a possibility of further decline in lead prices. The import window is open, and domestic demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in recycling smelters [7]. Zinc - Market Information: On March 16, SHFE zinc index closed down 0.65% to 24,171 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S decreased by 24.5 to $3,289/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased by 1.28 tons to 23.11 tons on March 12 [9]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Zinc prices face a risk of downward breakthrough. The zinc industry is in a weak state, with high inventory accumulation and weak speculative sentiment [10]. Tin - Market Information: On March 13, SHFE tin main contract closed down 4.93% to 374,110 yuan/ton. The supply is in a state of post - holiday recovery but with limited upside, and the demand is in a weak recovery state [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a wide range at a high level. Supply is tight, and demand is in a weak recovery state. The reference range for domestic main contract is 350,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $45,000 - $53,000/ton [12]. Nickel - Market Information: On March 13, SHFE nickel main contract closed down 0.85% to 136,930 yuan/ton. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron are rising [13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. The RKAB quota reduction policy in Indonesia supports the price, but short - term supply - demand contradictions are limited. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - $20,000/ton. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: On March 13, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.85% to 155,787 yuan. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the price of Australian imported lithium concentrate increased [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The inventory is decreasing, and the market is waiting for industrial event catalysts. The reference range for the main contract of lithium carbonate on GZFE is 142,000 - 163,000 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina - Market Information: On March 13, the alumina index increased by 2.87% to 2,962 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong increased, and the futures warehouse receipts increased [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to observe alumina prices. The short - term supply is tight, but the long - term surplus pattern is difficult to change. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,850 - 3,050 yuan/ton [21]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: On March 16, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,190 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. The social inventory decreased by 0.79% to 108.61 tons [23]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate. Supply pressure is emerging, demand release is moderate, and cost support exists. The reference range for the main contract is 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: On March 16, the main AD2604 contract of cast aluminum alloy closed down 1.4% to 23,655 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions increased, and the inventory decreased [26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to strong cost, improving demand, and supply - side disturbances [27].