Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, due to the current continuous discount of raw sugar prices to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price and the increase in crude oil prices caused by geopolitical risks, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio in Brazil's new sugar - cane crushing season after April this year, leading to sugar production cuts. In China, as the sugar - cane crushing season nears its end, the pressure of increased production eases. With potential future benefits from raw sugar, sugar prices may still have room to rebound. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [5]. - For cotton, the March USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. Since March, the operation of the domestic downstream textile industry chain has been good, and the prices of finished cotton yarn and its substitute viscose staple fiber have been gradually rising. Currently, the fundamentals are good. Affected by crude oil prices and the overall commodity market, Zhengzhou cotton prices fluctuate widely at high levels. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [9]. - For protein meal, the March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices fluctuate sharply, driving protein meal prices to fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - For oils and fats, affected by the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices have risen sharply, driving up the prices of oils and fats. Fundamentally, the vegetable oil inventories in major consumer countries such as China and India have further declined to relatively low levels. It is bullish on oils and fats in the medium term [15]. - For eggs, although the production capacity is trending downward, the absolute supply level is still high, and the pace of reduction has slowed down due to expectations. The supply side has a post - poned expectation. On the other hand, the spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable, resulting in a relatively high valuation of the near - term contract on the futures market. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the near - term and pay attention to the support brought by rising cost in the long - term [18]. - For pigs, considering that the weight and theoretical slaughter volume are still high, although the inventory of small - scale farmers is low, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is not high under the current price difference between fat and standard pigs, so the support for the market is limited. The short - term spot price may remain weakly stable. Pay attention to the additional pressure on the spot price caused by the diminishing marginal effect of weight gain after the increase in feed prices. The near - term futures contract maintains a premium structure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds; the long - term contract has the expectation of production capacity reduction, but the upward driving force of the spot price is insufficient, resulting in an excessive premium, so it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Summary by Commodity Sugar Market Information - StoneX significantly reduced its forecast of the global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season to 870,000 tons, mainly due to the downward adjustment of the sugar production forecast in India. In January, it had predicted a surplus of 2.9 million tons, and the Indian sugar production forecast was lowered from 32.3 million tons to 29.7 million tons [4]. - As of February 28, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, India's cumulative sugar production was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62 million tons [4]. - The delivery volume of the March raw sugar contract was 15,900 lots, equivalent to 808,000 tons. Louis Dreyfus was the largest seller, delivering over 14,000 lots, and Sukeedon was the only buyer, delivering 15,900 lots [4]. - The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) predicted in its third production forecast that the net sugar production (excluding ethanol) in India in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season would be 29.3 million tons, 1.65 million tons lower than the second forecast and 3.17 million tons higher than the previous year [4]. - As of the week of March 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, up from 41 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.4939 million tons, up from 1.4617 million tons in the previous week [4]. - As of February 28, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, Thailand's sugar production reached 8.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 130,000 tons [4]. - In the second half of January 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 609,000 tons of sugar cane, with a sugar production of 5,000 tons and a sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio of 6.63% [4]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted at the end of February that due to lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand, the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season was expected to be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast [4]. Strategy - Currently, raw sugar prices are continuously at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. With the increase in crude oil prices due to geopolitical risks, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio in Brazil's new sugar - cane crushing season after April this year, leading to sugar production cuts. In China, as the sugar - cane crushing season nears its end, the pressure of increased production eases. With potential future benefits from raw sugar, sugar prices may still have room to rebound. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [5]. Cotton Market Information - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicted that the global cotton production in the 2026/27 season would decline by 4% to 24.8 million tons, while consumption was expected to remain stable at 25 million tons [7]. - From February 26 to March 5, the United States exported 35,800 tons of cotton in the current year, with a cumulative export of 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons. Among them, the export to China in that week was 1,800 tons, with a cumulative export of 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons [7]. - As of the week of March 13, the spinning mill operating rate was 76%, a 2.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 330,000 tons [7]. - The USDA predicted in March that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season would be 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February prediction and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February prediction and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year [7]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [8]. Strategy - The March USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. Since March, the operation of the domestic downstream textile industry chain has been good, and the prices of finished cotton yarn and its substitute viscose staple fiber have been gradually rising. Currently, the fundamentals are good. Affected by crude oil prices and the overall commodity market, Zhengzhou cotton prices fluctuate widely at high levels. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [9]. Protein Meal Market Information - In February, China imported 5.976 million tons of soybeans, and the cumulative import volume from January to February was 12.547 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% [11]. - AgRural estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178 million tons, a 3 - million - ton decrease from the previous forecast [11]. - StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 177.8 million tons, a 3.8 - million - ton decrease from the previous forecast [11]. - From February 26 to March 5, the United States exported 380,000 tons of soybeans in the current year, with a cumulative export of 36.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7 million tons. Among them, the export to China in that week was 80,000 tons, and the cumulative export to China in the current year was 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9 million tons [11]. - As of the week of March 6, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 13.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54 million tons. The sample soybean port inventory was 5.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.79 million tons [11]. - The USDA predicted in March that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 427.17 million tons, a 0.99 - million - ton decrease from the February prediction and a 0.028 - million - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from February and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year [11]. Strategy - The March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices fluctuate sharply, driving protein meal prices to fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. Oils and Fats Market Information - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) reported that from March 1 to 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 1.55% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area increased by 4.29%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52% [14]. - The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government was studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year [14]. - In January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a 490,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and an 860,000 - ton increase from the same period last year [14]. - According to data released by the MPOB, in February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a 300,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 90,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. Exports were 1.13 million tons, a 330,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 130,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. The inventory was 2.7 million tons, a 120,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 1.19 - million - ton increase from the same period last year [14]. - AmSpec reported that from March 1 to 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 581,000 tons, an 182,000 - ton increase from the same period last month [14]. - ITS reported that from March 1 to 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 622,000 tons, a 171,000 - ton increase from the same period last month [14]. - As of the end of January, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.75 million tons, the same as the previous month and a 430,000 - ton decrease from the same period last year [14]. - As of the week of March 6, the inventory of the three major domestic sample oils and fats was 1.98 million tons, a 77,000 - ton decrease from the same period last year [14]. Strategy - Affected by the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices have risen sharply, driving up the prices of oils and fats. Fundamentally, the vegetable oil inventories in major consumer countries such as China and India have further declined to relatively low levels. It is bullish on oils and fats in the medium term [15]. Eggs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices generally trended stronger, with some remaining stable. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan per catty, the price in Guantao increased by 0.09 yuan to 2.98 yuan per catty, and the price in Xishui increased by 0.13 yuan to 3.4 yuan per catty. The inventory is relatively high, and the overall supply is sufficient. The supply of small - sized eggs is slightly tight, and the overall inventory is not high. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the willingness to chase high prices is low. However, as the Tomb - Sweeping Festival approaches, the demand side may improve slightly, and it is expected that egg prices may still have a slight upward space this week [17]. Strategy - Although the production capacity is trending downward, the absolute supply level is still high, and the pace of reduction has slowed down due to expectations. The supply side has a post - poned expectation. On the other hand, the spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable, resulting in a relatively high valuation of the near - term contract on the futures market. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the near - term and pay attention to the support brought by rising cost in the long - term [18]. Pigs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices fluctuated slightly, with increases, decreases, and stability. The average price in Henan increased by 0.02 yuan to 10.19 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan remained at 10.11 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guangxi decreased by 0.01 yuan to 10.11 yuan per kilogram. After continuous price cuts, the breeding side showed resistance to price cuts, which may drive a slight rebound in the northern and southern markets over the weekend and at the beginning of the week. However, the overall abundant supply limits the price increase space, the improvement space of the terminal market in the future is limited, and the entry of secondary fattening is generally cautious, so pig prices may still be under pressure [20]. Strategy - Considering that the weight and theoretical slaughter volume are still high, although the inventory of small - scale farmers is low, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is not high under the current price difference between fat and standard pigs, so the support for the market is limited. The short - term spot price may remain weakly stable. Pay attention to the additional pressure on the spot price caused by the diminishing marginal effect of weight gain after the increase in feed prices. The near - term futures contract maintains a premium structure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds; the long - term contract has the expectation of production capacity reduction, but the upward driving force of the spot price is insufficient, resulting in an excessive premium, so it is recommended to wait and see [21].
五矿期货农产品早报-20260316
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-03-16 01:09