白银周报：美元指数走强，白银走势承压-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silver market is affected by multiple factors. The recent trend of precious metals is strongly negatively correlated with crude oil and the US dollar index. Due to the continuous tension in the Middle - East situation, energy prices are strong, and the inflation expectation in March has increased, which reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts. The US dollar index has returned to the 100 mark, suppressing precious metals. The silver main contract oscillated weakly last week. In the future, attention should be paid to energy prices, interest - rate cut expectations, the delivery data of COMEX silver in March, geopolitical risks, global liquidity, and the trend of the US dollar index. The long - term financial and monetary attributes of silver still exist [8][10]. - The operation strategy is to hold the remaining long positions in the medium - term and adopt the double - buying strategy for options [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1 Weekly Views - Silver Trend: The recent trend of precious metals is strongly negatively correlated with crude oil and the US dollar index. Affected by the continuous tension in the Middle - East situation, energy prices are strong, with the crude oil price closing at $99.3 per barrel. The inflation expectation in March has increased, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts. The US dollar index has returned to the 100 mark, suppressing precious metals. As of last Friday's close, the weekly decline of Shanghai silver was 3.8%; as of the early morning of March 14, London silver closed at 80.58, with a weekly decline of 4.6% [8]. - US Economy: The US manufacturing PMI in February was 52.4, higher than the expected value of 51.8 and the previous value of 52.6, with the manufacturing PMI remaining in the expansion range for the second consecutive month. In terms of employment, the US Department of Labor data showed that the non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected value, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%. The weak US employment data still keeps the market's hope for the Fed to cut interest rates [8]. - Inflation: The US inflation data in February generally met market expectations. The US CPI in February increased by 2.4% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the previous value. The core CPI increased by 2.5% year - on - year, also in line with expectations and the previous value. However, the rise in crude oil prices further intensifies inflation concerns, and the market continues to postpone the time point of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The Fed will hold a meeting on March 18, and the market generally expects the interest rate to remain unchanged [8]. - Interest Rate: Last week, both the US dollar index and the US Treasury bond yield increased. The US dollar index returned to the 100 mark, putting pressure on precious metals such as gold and silver [8]. - Supply and Demand: According to the World Silver Association, the silver market has been in a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, and the shortage is expected to continue in 2026, with a possible gap of 67 million ounces. In terms of physical investment demand for silver, as of March 13, 2026, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - SLV were 15,460 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91%. In terms of inventory, after the US temporarily exempted silver and other precious metals from additional tariffs, the COMEX silver inventory flowed out significantly, mostly to the London spot market; the silver inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange in China are still decreasing and are at historically low levels [8]. - Price Spread: Last week, the price spread between domestic and foreign silver futures widened from 2,956 to 3,025; the London spot gold - silver ratio was reported at 62.27 [8]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Hold the remaining long positions in the medium - term; for options, use the double - buying strategy [10]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - There are trend charts of COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver, but no specific text analysis is provided [13][17]. 3.3 US Economy - There are charts of US GDP, PMI, new non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate, but no specific text analysis is provided [25][26]. 3.4 Inflation - There are charts of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE, but no specific text analysis is provided [33][34][35]. 3.5 Interest Rate - There are charts of US Treasury bond yields (short - term and medium - long - term) and real interest rates, but no specific text analysis is provided [42][44]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply and Demand Balance: The silver market has been in a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, and the shortage is expected to continue in 2026, with a possible gap of 67 million ounces. The global silver supply and demand balance table shows the changes in supply and demand from 2016 to 2025F [8][48]. - Silver Demand: There is a chart of silver ETF holdings, but no specific text analysis is provided [49][50]. - Silver Inventory: There are charts of COMEX silver inventory, LBMA silver inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory, but no specific text analysis is provided [52][55]. 3.7 US Dollar Index and Exchange Rate - US Dollar Index: There is a chart of the US dollar index, but no specific text analysis is provided [61][62]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: There is a chart of the US dollar against the renminbi (CFETS spot exchange rate), but no specific text analysis is provided [64][65]. - Other Exchange Rates: There are charts of the British pound against the US dollar, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, the euro against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen, but no specific text analysis is provided [69][71]. 3.8 Silver Domestic - Foreign Price Spread - There are charts of the domestic - foreign silver futures trend and the domestic - foreign silver price spread, but no specific text analysis is provided [78][79]. 3.9 Silver Basis - There are charts of the domestic and foreign silver basis, but no specific text analysis is provided [86][88]. 3.10 Gold - Silver Ratio - There is a chart of the gold - silver ratio, but no specific text analysis is provided [91][92].