美元指数偏强运行，随板块下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, platinum and palladium showed a weak and volatile trend. Uncertainties in the Middle East situation persist. With the strengthening of oil prices and the renewed upward movement of the US dollar index, precious metals were suppressed. Continued attention should be paid to changes in energy prices and interest rate cut expectations, and market sentiment is expected to fluctuate. [8][9] - Fundamentally, the global platinum market has been in short supply for two consecutive years. The supply of platinum has shrunk, and industrial demand has increased. The relatively low price has stabilized the demand for jewelry and investment, highlighting the supply - demand contradiction. It is expected that the supply - demand gap for platinum will persist in the coming years, so the long - term fundamentals of platinum are optimistic. [9] - For palladium, automotive demand dominates. Due to the sharp increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China, the incremental demand for palladium is restricted, and it is difficult to see an improvement in the short term. Therefore, the fundamental support for palladium is limited, and its trend is affected by the linkage with platinum and the macro - environment. Overall, without significant changes in fundamentals, it may move in tandem with the precious metals market. [9] - Operationally, it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium term. For options, a double - buy strategy is suggested. [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies - Platinum and Palladium Trends: Last Friday, platinum and palladium showed a weak and volatile trend. The main platinum contract closed down 3.72% at 541.6, and the main palladium contract closed down 2.43% at 408.1. The closing prices of overseas spot platinum and palladium on Saturday morning were 2022.3 and 1551 respectively. The weekly declines of domestic platinum and palladium were 3.37% and 3.18% respectively. [8] - Macroeconomic Situation: In February, the US manufacturing PMI was 52.4, higher than the expected 51.8, with the previous value at 52.6, indicating continuous expansion for the second month. In terms of employment, the number of non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000 in February, significantly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%. The weak employment data kept market hopes for a Fed rate cut alive. The inflation data in February generally met market expectations, but the rise in oil prices increased inflation concerns, replacing rate - cut expectations with rate - hike expectations. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on March 18, but rate hikes may be back on the agenda after the oil price surge. [8] - News: The US - Iran conflict has entered its third week. Since March 1st, only 77 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Affected by frequent ship - attack incidents, oil prices have soared to around $100. The market is shifting from pricing short - term conflicts to long - term Middle East wars, and inflation expectations are rising rapidly. The US dollar index has returned to 100, and US bond yields have exceeded the 2026 high. Attention should be paid to whether the inflation caused by rising oil prices will lead to US rate hikes. [8] - Fundamentals: In 2026, the supply and demand of platinum and palladium are expected to diverge significantly. Platinum supply is continuously restricted, with South Africa accounting for over 70% of global production. Its demand structure is diverse, with automotive exhaust catalysts accounting for about 40%, and the rest from investment, jewelry, and industrial sectors. With the rise in platinum prices, investment demand has increased significantly, and emerging fields such as the hydrogen energy industry and commercial aerospace have opened up long - term growth prospects. It is expected that the supply - demand gap for platinum will continue and may widen in 2026. Palladium's terminal demand is highly dependent on automotive exhaust catalysts, accounting for over 80%. Affected by the acceleration of new energy vehicle penetration and the substitution trend of platinum, the growth of palladium demand lacks potential. Although there is still a short - term supply gap, it is expected to narrow significantly in 2026, with limited fundamental support. [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the price trends of platinum and palladium in NYMEX futures, London spot, Guangzhou Futures Exchange futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange through multiple charts, including price ranges and data sources. [12][16][20][24] 3.3 US Economy - The report shows the trends of US GDP, PMI (including manufacturing and service sectors), non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate through charts, reflecting the overall economic situation of the United States. [31][32] 3.4 Inflation - The report shows the trends of US CPI, PCE, core CPI, and core PCE through charts, reflecting the inflation situation in the United States. [39][40] 3.5 Interest Rates - The report shows the trends of US short - term and medium - long - term bond yields and real interest rates through charts, reflecting the interest rate situation in the United States. [48][50] 3.6 Fundamentals - Platinum: The global platinum supply - demand balance sheet from 2013 to 2026f is presented, including supply (from different regions, recycling, etc.) and demand (automotive, jewelry, IT, etc.) data, showing the supply - demand gap and inventory changes over the years. [54] - Palladium: The global palladium supply - demand balance sheet from 2009 to 2025 is presented, including supply (first - stage and second - stage supply) and demand (automotive, chemical, dental, etc.) data, showing the supply - demand gap over the years. [55] 3.7 Futures Positioning - The report shows the non - commercial net long positions and total positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium futures through charts, reflecting the market's positioning situation. [56][59][60] 3.8 Passenger Car Sales - The report shows the retail and wholesale data of the Chinese passenger car market and their year - on - year changes through charts, reflecting the sales situation of the passenger car market. [62][63][64] 3.9 US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - US Dollar Index: The trend of the US dollar index is presented. [69][70] - Exchange Rates: The exchange rate trends of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, British pound, Canadian dollar, euro, and Japanese yen are presented. [72][77][79] 3.10 Platinum and Palladium Price Differences between Domestic and Overseas Markets - The report shows the price trends of domestic and overseas platinum spot and the price differences between them through charts. [86][87][89] 3.11 Platinum - Palladium Price Ratio - The report shows the platinum - palladium price ratio in NYMEX and LPPM through charts. [94][95]