招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The conflicts in the Middle East, such as the Iran - Israel and US - Iran conflicts, have a significant impact on the commodity futures market. Different commodities show various market performances, fundamentals, and trading strategies due to factors like geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Market Performance: On Friday, the international gold price denominated in London gold fell by 1.18% to $5018.098 per ounce. The domestic gold market also declined, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's 9999 gold down 1.34% and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold main contract down 1.32%. The international silver price dropped 3.86% to $80.548 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held from March 14th - 17th in Paris. The risk of the Iran - conflict escalation has increased, and crude oil prices have risen. China's new social financing in February was 2.38 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 900 billion yuan, with M2 growing 9% year - on - year. The US 1 - month core PCE price increased 3.1% year - on - year, and the GDP in the fourth quarter was revised down to 0.7%. The domestic gold ETF had a small inflow of 1.1 tons, and the inventories of gold and silver in different markets had various changes [1]. - Trading Strategy: Due to the tense Middle East situation and potential inflation, but weak performance of precious metals in the short - term due to liquidity, it is recommended to reduce long positions in gold. For silver, it is suggested to short - sell in the short - term as it follows gold's fluctuations, with a significant decline in domestic spot premiums and an increase in overseas arrivals [1]. Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices oscillated weakly [2][4]. - Fundamentals: The intensification of the US - Iran conflict on Friday increased concerns about stagflation, weakening risk appetite. The copper concentrate processing fee dropped to negative $60, while the sulfuric acid price rose. The spot premium of flat - water copper in East and South China was traded, and the London structure remained in contango. Global visible inventories were at a high level, and the refined - scrap price difference was around 500 yuan [2][4]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see until the macro - outlook becomes clear [2][4]. Aluminum - Market Performance: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 1.11% to 24,960 yuan per ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 220 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $3484 per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: The continuous Middle East conflict has increased the expectation of tightened overseas aluminum supply, and the low - level decline of LME aluminum inventories supports the aluminum price. However, the domestic inventory accumulation pressure and the strong US dollar suppress the price. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 3.18% to 2956 yuan per ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 245 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: The operating capacity of alumina increased steadily, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading Strategy: The news of Guinea's potential restriction on bauxite exports, along with rising freight, imported bauxite, and caustic soda prices, strengthened the cost support for alumina. The short - term price may oscillate strongly, but the uncertainty of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the industry's over - supply pattern limit the upside space. It is necessary to focus on Guinea's mining policy [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8675 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.35% from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest decreased [3]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces increased by 1 in Sichuan this week, and the electricity price decreased year - on - year, with an expected increase in production. Social inventories decreased slightly. The monthly production of polysilicon is expected to approach 90,000 tons after resuming work in March, the output of the silicone industry is stable, and the aluminum alloy price is rising, with the industry operating rate reaching 58.8% [3]. - Trading Strategy: This week, the market was affected by macro - events, with the trading logic focused on rising energy costs. There is pressure at the 8900 level due to hedging by leading enterprises. Next week, the market will be mainly driven by macro - sentiment, and the price is expected to oscillate between 8100 - 8900 [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 152,080 yuan/ton, down 4900 yuan or 3.12% [3]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of SMM Australian spodumene concentrate increased by $15 per ton, and the SMM lithium carbonate price increased by 1000 yuan/ton. The weekly production increased by 836 tons, and the estimated production in March is 106,390 tons, up 8.7% from January. The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials in March increased compared to January. The inventory is expected to decrease in Q1, with a total inventory of 98,959 tons, a decrease of 414 tons. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased [3]. - Trading Strategy: The low - level inventory in the off - season supports the price to oscillate around 150,000 yuan. It is expected that the inventory reduction in March will narrow. The power consumption in the first week of March has recovered, and the subsequent upward driving force depends on the prosperity of the new energy vehicle terminal consumption [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 42,040 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan or 1.68% from the previous trading day. The trading volume increased, and the open interest increased slightly [3]. - Fundamentals: The weekly polysilicon production increased slightly, and the industry inventory increased by 3.5%. The warehouse receipts accumulated slightly. The prices of downstream products decreased slightly, and the production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in March increased compared to the previous month but was still weak year - on - year. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream demand rhythm as the export tax - refund rush period is ending [3]. - Trading Strategy: The spot price of polysilicon decreased slightly this week, and the contract open interest continued to shrink. It is necessary to closely monitor the downstream actual procurement and order price changes, and the price is expected to oscillate between 40,000 - 45,000 yuan [3]. Tin - Market Performance: Tin prices oscillated weakly [3][4]. - Fundamentals: Similar to copper, the intensification of the US - Iran conflict increased concerns about stagflation, weakening risk appetite. The copper concentrate processing fee dropped to negative $60, while the sulfuric acid price rose. The spot premium of flat - water copper in East and South China was traded, and the London structure remained in contango. Global visible inventories were at a high level, and the refined - scrap price difference was around 500 yuan [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see until the macro - outlook becomes clear [3][4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3134 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous night session [5]. - Fundamentals: The steel spot market trading continued to recover, with short - term weak supply and demand. The building material demand expectation was weak, but the supply decreased significantly year - on - year, with limited contradictions. The plate demand was recovering, with high direct and indirect exports, and the inventory level was high, with a slightly higher inventory accumulation rate than the same period in previous years. The steel mill profit was poor, and the production increase space was limited. The futures valuation remained stable, with a high futures discount for rebar and a slight premium or flat price for hot - rolled coil futures [5]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3100 - 3160 [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 798 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous night session [5]. - Fundamentals: The iron ore supply and demand were moderately weak. The steel - linked iron water production decreased by 64,000 tons month - on - month and 4% year - on - year. The first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there was a game about whether to continue cutting. The steel mill profit was poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope was limited. The supply followed the seasonal pattern. The furnace - material steel mill inventory was slightly high, and the inventory days were above the historical average. Although the port inventory increased by about 20 million tons year - on - year to 170 million tons, the proportion of mainstream iron ore inventory at ports was low, with certain structural contradictions. The iron ore maintained a forward discount structure but was significantly lower year - on - year, with a high valuation [5]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 770 - 810 [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1176.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous night session [5]. - Fundamentals: The steel - linked iron water production decreased by 64,000 tons month - on - month to 2.212 million tons, down 94,000 tons year - on - year. The first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there was a game about whether to continue cutting. The steel mill profit was poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope might be gentle. The port customs clearance was at a high level, and the inventories at different links were differentiated, with high inventories at ports and mines and low inventories at other links, and the overall inventory level was moderate. The 05 contract futures had a premium over the spot, and the forward premium structure was maintained, with a high futures valuation [5]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for JM05 is 1140 - 1210 [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans fell slightly last Friday [6]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there is an expectation of large global supply, and more than half of the Brazilian soybeans have been harvested. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, and exports meet expectations. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose [6]. - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, US soybeans are strong, driven by macro - crude oil. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - crude oil and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is also strong in the short - term, but the difficulty of unilateral trading increases [6][7]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices fell slightly, while spot prices continued to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: The grain sales progress has exceeded 70%, with little sales pressure and weak sales willingness, but the progress is slow. The port and downstream inventories are at a low level, and the bargaining power is weak. The spot price is still dominated by the producing area, where the price is strong. It is necessary to pay attention to the wheat auction at the minimum purchase price next week and the changes in weather and purchase - sales rhythm [7]. - Trading Strategy: As the price in the producing area weakens and the downstream replenishes inventory, the futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. Fats and Oils - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil rose last Friday [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, it is expected to enter the seasonal production - increasing period. On the demand side, ITS estimates that the Malaysian exports from March 1st - 10th increased by 38% month - on - month, with both supply and demand increasing in the stage [7]. - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, fats and oils follow crude oil and are strong, but the difficulty of unilateral trading increases. It is necessary to pay attention to the later crude oil and production in the producing area [7]. White Sugar - Market Performance: ICE raw sugar 05 contract closed at 14.41 cents per pound, with a weekly increase of 2.27%. Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5437 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.18%. The basis between Nanning spot and Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract is 26 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar processing after tax is 610 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: This week, due to the soaring international crude oil price, the ethanol price increased, and the market is worried that the upcoming new - season Brazilian sugarcane may be used for ethanol production, with a significant expected decrease in the sugar - making ratio. In addition, India's production increase is less than expected, and the international sugar price has returned above 14 cents per pound. In China, the estimated sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season has been continuously raised to 7.2 - 7.3 million tons. The monthly production in February is expected to reach the highest level in recent years, and Guangxi has entered the inventory - accumulating stage. However, recently, macro - funds have allocated long positions in white sugar. Affected by the oil price and policy support, Zhengzhou sugar is difficult to fall in the short - term, and the rebound height depends on the cooling of the Middle East situation, the oil price trend, and the sugar - alcohol ratio in the new - season Brazilian sugarcane [7]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: ICE US cotton futures prices stopped falling and rebounded last Friday, and international crude oil futures prices oscillated strongly [7]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the latest US cotton export sales data increased compared to the previous week, and the CFTC fund's net long - position ratio in cotton increased month - on - month. In January, Pakistan imported 82,000 tons of cotton, a 23.2% increase month - on - month and a 42.6% decrease year - on - year. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated strongly. The basis between futures and spot increased compared to the previous week, and the inter - month spread of Zhengzhou cotton maintained a narrow - range oscillation. The inventory of downstream cotton yarn and grey cloth decreased month - on - month [7]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a price range of 15,300 - 15,800 yuan/ton [7]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices fell, while spot prices rose over the weekend [7]. - Fundamentals: Currently, the demand has recovered, the market sales have accelerated, and the inventory has decreased. However, the breeding side has a weak willingness to cull, and the number of laying hens in production is at a high level. The overall supply is sufficient, and it is the off - season for demand. Egg prices are expected to be at a low level [7]. - Trading Strategy: As the demand recovers, the futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices were weak, while spot prices rose slightly over the weekend [7]. - Fundamentals: In March, the slaughter volume of the breeding side increased significantly compared to February, the slaughter weight is at a high level in recent years, and the slaughter progress is slow. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, with strong supply and weak demand. The futures and spot prices are expected to be weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the recent slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm [7]. - Trading Strategy: With strong supply and weak demand, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The LLDPE main contract oscillated slightly on Friday. The low - price spot in North China was 8150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 300 yuan lower than the spot, with weak basis and general market trading [9]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there are no new installations in the first half of the year, and some existing installations plan to reduce production or stop due to the expected shortage of crude oil caused by the US - Iran conflict, resulting in a significant decrease in domestic supply. The import window has been closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease due to the US - Iran geopolitical conflict. In the short - term, the domestic supply pressure has eased. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the demand is improving month - on - month. March and April are the peak seasons for agricultural film demand [9]. - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory