山金期货黑色板块日报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation shows no sign of easing, with crude oil prices rising strongly. Driven by this, black - series commodity prices are running strongly in the short term. Although the market's supply - demand is recovering with increasing production and demand, inventory is still rising, and the market has relatively weak expectations for this year's demand and a pessimistic view of the fundamentals. The sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs, and the "Two Sessions" policies did not exceed market expectations. Technically, the futures price has broken through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and it is likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the short term. For trading, it is recommended to go long with a light position on dips and be cautious about chasing up [2]. - The iron ore market is entering the consumption season. Although the daily average hot - metal output decreased last week, it is expected to gradually recover after the "Two Sessions" and with the arrival of the consumption season. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased production costs on both the supply and demand sides. Rumors of tightened liquidity in the spot market have led to an accelerated rise in iron ore prices. There are also rumors that BHP's Newman powder has been added to the spot restriction list, which has a short - term impact on market supply. With the improvement of the weather, shipments are gradually rising to a high level, and the port inventory has reached a record high. Technically, the futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end. It is recommended to try to go long with a light position on dips during the price correction [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - Price Changes: The closing prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased by 0.35% and 0.40% respectively compared to the previous day, and 1.43% and 1.77% respectively compared to last week. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils also showed certain changes, with the rebar spot price in Shanghai down 0.31% from the previous day but up 0.63% from last week, and the hot - rolled coil spot price unchanged from the previous day but up 0.93% from last week [3]. - Supply and Demand: The total output of the five major varieties of the 247 sample steel mills increased last week, and the inventory continued to rise. The apparent demand rebounded from the low point of the year. The national building materials steel mill's rebar output increased by 4.97% compared to last week, while the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.75%. The social inventory of the five major varieties increased by 8.29%, and the apparent demand increased by 23.68% [2][3]. - Operation Suggestion: Go long with a light position on dips and be cautious about chasing up [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Price Changes: The settlement price of the main DCE iron ore contract increased by 0.45% compared to the previous day and 4.72% compared to last week. The prices of various iron ore powders in ports also showed different degrees of increase [5]. - Supply and Demand: The market is entering the consumption season. Although the daily average hot - metal output decreased last week, it is expected to recover. The supply side is affected by rumors, and shipments are gradually rising with the improvement of the weather. The port inventory has reached a record high [5]. - Operation Suggestion: Try to go long with a light position on dips during the price correction [5]. 3.3 Industry News - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports was 17187.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 69.66 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 317.90 tons, an increase of 6.82 tons; the number of ships in port was 110, a decrease of 2 [7]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.34%, a week - on - week increase of 0.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.24 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 82.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.40 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.65 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 221.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.39 tons [7]. - According to China Metallurgical News, the rebound of iron ore prices at the end of February was more of an emotional and technical repair rather than based on the improvement of supply - demand fundamentals, and the upward movement lacks a supporting basis. Under the real pressure of continuous oversupply, the upside space of iron ore prices has been firmly capped [7].