油脂周报：各国向前推进生柴政策，油脂短期或震荡偏强-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that the short - term trend of edible oils may be oscillating and slightly bullish, mainly influenced by the progress of biodiesel policies in various countries, the production and export of palm oil in Southeast Asia, the progress of China's rapeseed imports, and the price of crude oil [5][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Viewpoints - Soybean oil: The US biodiesel policy may be finalized by the end of March. The market expects large refineries to make up a certain proportion of the biofuel blending exemption quota, and attention should be paid to the policy trend [5] - Palm oil: High - frequency data shows that from March 1 - 10, the export of Malaysian palm oil increased by 37.9% - 45.3% month - on - month, strongly supporting the price of edible oils. Indonesia is accelerating the road test of B50 biodiesel, and its progress needs to be monitored [5] - Rapeseed oil: The arrival volume of rapeseed from March to May will increase, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory will increase in the later period [5] 3.2 Strategy Views and Outlook - Unilateral trading: It is recommended that the support level of palm oil 05 be referred to 9200 - 9300; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [7] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - Outlook: Attention should be paid to the biodiesel policies of various countries, the production and export of palm oil in Southeast Asia, the progress of China's rapeseed imports, and the price of crude oil. Overall, edible oils may be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short term [9] 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, edible oils rose significantly, mainly affected by the increase in crude oil prices [19] - Futures price differences between varieties: The soybean - palm oil price difference and the rapeseed - palm oil price difference are oscillating weakly, and the rapeseed - soybean oil price difference is oscillating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [26] 3.4 Supply Side - Malaysian palm oil monthly data: According to the February MPOB report, the production of Malaysian palm oil in February decreased by 18.55% month - on - month, exports decreased by 22.46% month - on - month, and the ending inventory decreased by 3.94% to 2.704 million tons, higher than the market expectation of 2.63 million tons, and the de - stocking amplitude was less than expected [40] - Domestic soybean and soybean oil imports, crushing volume, and inventory: Data on China's soybean imports, crushing volume, port inventory, and soybean oil imports are presented through charts [42] - Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports, crushing volume, and inventory: Data on China's rapeseed imports, crushing volume, port inventory, and rapeseed oil imports are presented through charts [50] - China's palm oil imports: Data on China's palm oil imports are presented through charts [60] 3.5 Demand Side - Data on the trading volume of domestic rapeseed oil, three major edible oils, soybean oil, and palm oil are presented through charts [65] 3.6 Inventory - Domestic edible oil inventory: As of March 6, 2026, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.094 million tons, a decrease of 0.28 tons from the previous week, a decline of 0.26%, and an increase of 20,200 tons year - on - year, an increase of 1.88%. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 812,100 tons, an increase of 25,400 tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.23%, and an increase of 399,600 tons compared with 412,500 tons last year, an increase of 96.87%. The total inventory of rapeseed oil in major regions was 434,500 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week [75][79] 3.7 Disk Import Profit - As of March 13, 2026, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the April shipment was - 134 yuan/ton [85]