南华期货铜产业周报：供需寻求平衡中，铜价将再次试探上周低位-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price lacked upward momentum under the triple negative factors of "high inventory, weak demand, and delivery pressure" this week, and it was difficult to hold the 100,000 RMB mark [2][57]. - Cathode copper and LME copper are currently in the early stage of an uptrend and at a cyclical low [2][9]. - The risk - return ratio of going long on SHFE copper is 1.65% (moderate risk - return ratio, moderate participation), and that of LME copper is 1.77% (moderate risk - return ratio, moderate participation) [2][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - Core Contradictions - The copper price lacked upward drivers under the triple negative factors of "high inventory, weak demand, and delivery pressure", and the risk - return ratio of going long unilaterally increased significantly [2]. - The decline in the spot copper price narrowed, the discount range narrowed, the spot smelting income of refined copper decreased week - on - week, and smelting enterprises were more willing to purchase and sell. The Yangshan copper premium declined, while the import profit of copper and recycled copper increased significantly. Due to the low operating rate of recycled copper, production was limited, and the ticket points increased significantly, supporting the high price of scrap copper, and the refined - scrap price difference continued to decline [2]. - Strategy Recommendations - For industrial customers, pay attention to the restocking opportunities when the price drops to the 98,000 - 99,000 RMB range again [3][57]. - For speculative customers, short - term short positions should pay attention to the resistance around 100,000 RMB on the technical side and the support strength of the above - mentioned range. In addition to futures, options can also be considered, such as buying out - of - the - money put options and constructing bear spreads [3][57]. 3.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning - The latest price quantile of SHFE copper is 98.97%, with an annualized volatility of 15.22% in the past week, lower than last week and the historical volatility of 18.01%. The latest price quantile of LME copper is 98.84%, with an annualized volatility of 14.78% in the past week, the same as last week and lower than the historical volatility of 20.28% [9]. - Trend Judgment - Cathode copper is in the early stage of an uptrend and at a cyclical low; LME copper is also in the early stage of an uptrend and at a cyclical low [9]. - Price Range - The price range of SHFE copper is [98,926, 104,471], with a price center of 101,699; the price range of LME copper is [12,557, 13,401], with a price center of 12,979 [9]. - Strategy Recommendations - The risk - return ratio of going long on SHFE copper is 1.65% (moderate risk - return ratio, moderate participation), and that of LME copper is 1.77% (moderate risk - return ratio, moderate participation) [9]. - Basis (Premium/Discount), Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations - Basis (Premium/Discount) Strategy: Narrow. On March 13, the basis was 85 RMB/ton, at the 53.8% historical quantile, within the normal 40% historical range. The probability of expansion in the next 1 - 2 weeks is 17.1%, with a downward direction [11]. - Calendar Spread: The main fluctuation range of the spread between the first - and third - month contracts is [-100, 250]. The current spread is -270. The probability of expansion and narrowing is both 50%, neutral [13]. - Cross - Border Spread Strategy: Pay attention to cross - market reverse arbitrage. As of March 13, the SHFE - LME ratio was 7.78, at the 35.5% historical quantile. Key indicators such as the US dollar index, LME copper inventory, and fund net long positions are worthy of attention [14]. 3.3 Enterprise Hedging Strategy Recommendations - For enterprises with low raw material inventory and restocking needs after the Spring Festival, considering the expected increase in price volatility in the future, futures can be used to build positions in batches near the support levels. The first support level is 98,921 RMB, the second is 97,832 RMB, and the third is 95,650 RMB. Off - exchange options such as buying up - and - out accumulator options can also be considered in the 98,000 - 102,000 RMB range [18]. 3.4 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Event Interpretations - This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The IEA indicated that aluminum is a viable alternative to copper in the power industry to reduce raw material costs. The IEA predicted that in the STEPS scenario, global grid copper demand will increase from 5 million tons in 2020 to 7.5 million tons in 2040, and aluminum demand will increase from 9 million tons to 12.8 million tons; in the SDS scenario, copper demand will approach 10 million tons, and aluminum demand will rise to 16 million tons in 2040 [18]. - Negative Information: Workers at Glencore's Australian copper refinery threatened to strike due to a salary dispute. The refinery in Queensland, Australia, produces up to 300,000 tons of refined copper annually [19]. - Macroeconomic Information: In January - February 2026, China's exports reached 656.58 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 21.8%, and imports increased by 19.8%, with a trade surplus of 213.62 billion US dollars. The export of high - tech products increased, strengthening the marginal demand for metals such as copper [20]. - Industry Chain Dynamics: In February 2026, the operating rate of the domestic copper cable industry decreased by 14.29 percentage points month - on - month to 55.81%, but increased by 9.06 percentage points year - on - year. The production of copper tubes and copper rods decreased in February due to the Spring Festival holiday [19][21][22]. - Other Information: Lundin Mining agreed to pay 215 million US dollars to increase its stake in the Caserones copper mine in Chile and acquire part of the Los Helados copper - gold project. Zambia aims to increase copper production to 3 million tons by 2031. The LME is consulting on adjusting the "evergreen" rent agreement. Shipping giant Hapag - Lloyd has tightened requirements for plastic and metal scrap transportation to Southeast Asia [23][24]. - Next Week's Key Event Interpretations - Next week, important macro - economic indicators such as China's fixed - asset investment, social consumer goods retail sales, and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be released [26]. 3.5 Disk Price - Volume and Capital Interpretations - Domestic Market Interpretation - This week, the market's perception of the US - Israel - Iran conflict changed. Funds increased investment in agricultural products and oil - chemical products and reduced investment in metals and precious metals. The copper price continued to show a shrinking volume consolidation. The trading volume of the SHFE copper weighted index decreased by 27.13% week - on - week, and the持仓 volume decreased by 0.07% week - on - week. The speculation degree continued to fluctuate below the median of 50 [29]. - The price of the SHFE copper main contract fluctuated around 100,742 RMB, with a fluctuation range of [98,370, 101,980]. It closed at 99,730 RMB/ton on Friday night, with a decrease of 8,946 lots in positions during the week, a weekly increase of 0.43%, and an amplitude of 3.61% [29]. - Foreign Market Interpretation - This week, the decline of LME copper and Comex copper widened, and the amplitude was relatively large. The LME copper price mainly fluctuated in the range of [12,583, 13,174] US dollars/ton, and finally closed at 12,735 US dollars/ton, with a position difference of 3,194 lots during the week, a week - on - week decline of 1.42%, and an amplitude of 4.57%. The Comex copper price mainly fluctuated in the range of [563.95, 596.2] US cents/pound, and finally closed at 567.5 US cents/pound, with a position difference of -2,358 lots during the week, a week - on - week decline of 3.82%, and an amplitude of 5.57% [31]. 3.6 Spot Price and Profit Analysis - Spot Price and Smelting Profit - This week, the decline in the spot copper price narrowed, the discount range narrowed, the spot smelting income of refined copper decreased week - on - week, and smelting enterprises were more willing to purchase and sell. The Yangshan copper premium declined, while the import profit of copper and recycled copper increased significantly. Due to the low operating rate of recycled copper, production was limited, and the ticket points increased significantly, supporting the high price of scrap copper, and the refined - scrap price difference continued to decline. The purchasing and sales mentality of copper processing enterprises was weaker than last week [36]. - The activity of the copper concentrate spot market increased, leading to a continuous decline in processing fees. For example, the refined copper processing fees for the second and third quarters in transactions between mines and smelters were -50 and -60 US dollars/ton [36]. - The weekly operating rates of refined copper rod enterprises, recycled copper rod enterprises, brass rod enterprises, wire and cable enterprises, and enameled wire enterprises continued to rise this week [36]. - Import Profit and Import Volume - This week, the import profit of copper and recycled copper continued to rise week - on - week, the SHFE - LME ratio on the futures disk increased, and the copper import window opened. The LC spread was inverted, the Yangshan copper premium declined, and most of the arriving bills of lading were cleared directly, resulting in a decline in bonded area inventory [40]. - As of March 12, the inventory of electrolytic copper in the Shanghai bonded area was 55,100 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons compared with March 5; the inventory in the Guangdong bonded area was 9,100 tons, a decrease of 500 tons compared with March 5 [40]. - In February 2026, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.31 million tons; from January to February, the cumulative imports were 4.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. In February, the imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 316,000 tons; from January to February, the cumulative imports were 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. With the opening of import profit, the import volume in March is likely to increase month - on - month [40]. - Inventory Analysis - This week, affected by factors such as the decline in the Yangshan Port premium, the narrowing of the calendar spread on the disk, and the closure of the smelting enterprises' export window, the bonded area port inventory declined, the domestic copper social inventory remained at a high level, and the exchange inventory declined from a high level. The LC spread was inverted, and the LME copper warehouses showed obvious inventory accumulation. The global visible copper inventory reached 1.33 million tons. Specifically, the Comex copper inventory was 597,000 tons, the Chinese copper inventory was 430,000 tons, and the LME copper inventory was 310,000 tons [45]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Deduction and Price Expectations - Supply Deduction - From January to February 2026, 23 sample enterprises produced a total of 2.1567 million tons of cathode copper, a year - on - year increase of 13.30%. It is expected that the cathode copper production in March will increase by 2.07 percentage points month - on - month to 1.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.97% [51][52]. - Demand Expectations - After the Spring Festival, the operating rates of most copper processing enterprises increased significantly. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod, brass rod, and copper cable enterprises have returned to the pre - festival level. Some enterprises' finished product inventories have decreased significantly, and raw material inventories have increased slightly. The raw material restocking cycle has not ended. The restocking rhythm depends on price factors and terminal orders, as well as the marginal demand changes in traditional industries such as construction and home appliances [54]. - Price Expectations - The copper price lacked upward drivers under the triple negative factors of "high inventory, weak demand, and delivery pressure", and it was difficult to hold the 100,000 RMB mark. Technically, the copper futures disk showed a shrinking volume consolidation, and the probability of a downward break increased. The first support level is the 98,000 - 99,000 RMB range. If the conflict escalates, oil prices continue to rise, and the US dollar remains high, the first support level may be broken, and the price may test 96,000 RMB. Otherwise, the first support level is a good price for long - term investors to build positions [57].